FXUS61 KCLE 052320
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
620 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA...MAINLY
NORTH OF I-90 SO FAR. THESE BAND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR TWO. THIS AREA OF
SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY INCREASES ITS INFLUENCE.
AWAY FROM THE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS HAD
A DIFFICULT TIME ERODING. BELIEVE THIS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED UNDER THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MAY HANG ON THROUGH A
DECENT PORTION OF THE NIGHT. DIFFICULT CALL ON LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THE CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE WITH AT LEAST A SHORT
PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD SUNRISE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN HAS DEFINITELY SET UP WITH A STORM SYSTEM SWEEPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES ON MONDAY AND THEN A MUCH STRONGER STORM
TAKING A SIMILAR PATH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
THE MONDAY STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ONLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SNOWBELT AREA
FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD DECREASE
ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MUCH STRONGER MIDDLE WEEK
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. LOOKS AS IF THERE COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT BEGINS. IT APPEARS THE REGION MAY
SEE THE PRECIPITATION START AS SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT COULD TRANSITION
TO SOME FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES
WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED SNOW TO RAIN
IN THE FORECAST AS THE WARM SECTOR PASSES INTO OHIO AND NW PA.
APPEARS THAT THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR INTO THE
AFTERNOON THEN DROPPING QUICKLY THROUGH THE EVENING. ANY RAIN WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
WEDNESDAY. THEN THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE LOOKS TO GET GOING AS COLD
AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SNOWBELT.
THE WIND WILL BE A BIG STORY WITH THE WEDNESDAY STORM SYSTEM.
LOOKS LIKE A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY THEN
PLUMMETING INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
20S. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TREND FOR FRIDAY IS THE SAME WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH VICE THE
GFS. DROPPED POPS FOR FRIDAY TO 20 PERCENT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE TEMPERATURES. THE 12Z ECMWF COLDER THAN YDY...COMING MORE INTO
LINE WITH THE GFS. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THE WEEKEND. GFS SHOTS
ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND HAS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CHOSE
THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST AS THAT WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR HPC.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH VFR/IFR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT REGION OF NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT TO SERN
OHIO AND WRN WVA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
FROM THE WEST AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE THE ST DECK TO THE ENE.
THERE ARE HOWEVER BREAKS IN THE ST (ONE MOVING TOWARD KTOL) BUT
DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL EXPAND MUCH. THERE IS A WESTERN EDGE TO
THE ST OVER INDIANA THAT TIMES INTO KTOL AND KFDY AROUND 03Z. WILL
ATTEMPT TO TIME THE WESTERN EDGE INTO THE AREA HOWEVER SKEPTICAL
ABOUT A QUICK TRANSITION AND WILL HAVE A SCT/BKN TEMPO GROUP IN
THE FCST FOR A COUPLE HOURS AFTER. SAME AT KMFD. WOULD EXPECT THIS
ST DECK TO CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST AND AFFECT KCAK AND KYNG AS WELL.
AT KERI...BELIEVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FAVORED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
NAM12 KEEPS LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE EFFECT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. NOT THE STORM OF THE CENTURY BUT WILL HANG ONTO SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT THERE.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE WILL SHIFT TO
EASTERN BASIN SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR CHOPPY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LAKE WITH WINDS FROM THE W-SW AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS
WEAKEN AND TURN TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. QUICK FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO W-NW. WILL APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EAST OF CLEVELAND. CONDITIONS CALM
DOWN QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.
A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A HIGH END GALE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45
KNOTS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE MORE WNW SO NOT REAL CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT LOW WATER BUT WITH THE STRONG WINDS FORECASTED SOME LOW
WATER SHOULD OCCUR ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE.
THE WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...DJB
