FXUS64 KEWX 261122 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
522 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
MODERATE NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LIGHT NE TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE BETWEEN 15-25K FEET IN THE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 00Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW IN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM SHOULD SLOWLY TO INCREASE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. A FEW MID-LEVEL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE WEAKENING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE EASTERN US. THE MOISTENING OF AIR WILL BUILD DOWNWARD TO THE
SURFACE BY SATURDAY, INCREASING MIN TEMPS AND POSSIBLY GENERATING
SOME DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS.
A MUCH STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA BY SUNDAY
WITH A UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE SUBTROPICS AND GRADUALLY
SEPARATING FROM A BROADER TROUGH FROM THE POLAR JET. 00Z MODEL RUNS
WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A POTENT COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SUBTROPICAL UPPER LOW LOOMS TO
THE WEST TO SET UP AN OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION PATTERN FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODEL TRENDS SHOWED THE SEPARATING LOW
SLOWING DOWN UP TO THE 00Z RUN, BUT THE 06Z GFS JUST ARRIVED TO
SHOW THE MOST OF THE UPPER ENGERY KEEPING PACE WITH THE POLAR FLOW
TO THE NORTH. THIS MAKES THE PERIODS FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH A MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE OVER PART OF THE AREA. DRYING ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THIS MORNING PACKAGE AS THE RUNS
SHOWING A COLD OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION PATTERN APPEARED TO BE
OUTLIERS FROM EARLIER RUNS. THE ONE CONSISTENCY IS THAT COLD AIR
TRANSPORT OVER THE NORTHERN US WILL SUPPORT A COOL TO COLD WEEK
NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP WAS LEFT IN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT A DRY FORECAST REMAINS MORE PROBABLE. A
LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW LATE NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS A
CONTINUATION OF SPLIT FLOW, AND A COOL AND UNSETTLED EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 43 72 50 70 / 0 0 20 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 66 35 72 46 70 / 0 0 20 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 39 71 48 68 / 0 - 20 20 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 37 69 47 66 / 0 0 10 10 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 66 45 64 49 69 / 0 - 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 41 70 50 68 / 0 0 10 10 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 40 66 48 67 / 0 - 20 20 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 67 39 70 47 71 / 0 0 20 20 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 66 38 67 49 68 / 0 - 20 20 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 43 70 48 69 / 0 - 20 20 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 42 69 49 70 / 0 - 20 20 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
18/11
