FXUS64 KSHV 151603
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1003 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009
...AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WILL BE COMING...
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES SINKING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND BY MY
BEST ESTIMATION...EXTENDS FROM LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TOWARD ATLANTA
GEORGIA. AREA RADARS SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS OF LATE MORNING. EVEN THOUGH I HAVE LEFT
AN ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST OVER MY SOUTHERN
TIER OF PARISHES THIS AFTERNOON...I EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
TO GRADUALLY END.
FIRST PERIOD CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC
THOUGH. THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN OVER MY SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES/PARISHES...DESPITE SOME EXPECTED THINNING.
COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN FALLING A LITTLE THIS
AFTERNOON. DECREASING CLOUD COVER MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY
OFFSET ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMUP.
ALL THAT SAID...I HAVE MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE LISTED
BELOW FOR YOUR PERUSAL.
ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET. AN
UPDATED SUITE OF TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. /21/
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED COLD AIR CUMULUS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z AT MOST
SITES...TRANSITIONING TO VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 00Z. POSTFRONTAL
N-NE WINDS THIS MORNING OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS MAY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. /23/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 47 34 52 33 55 / 10 0 0 0 0
MLU 47 33 49 33 53 / 10 0 0 0 0
DEQ 46 26 51 27 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
TXK 45 29 51 30 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
ELD 47 30 50 30 55 / 10 0 0 0 0
TYR 47 33 53 33 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
GGG 47 33 52 33 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
LFK 52 36 54 34 56 / 10 0 0 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECASTER... D. BUTTS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER FORECASTER... DUPLANTIS
