FXUS63 KGID 100525
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1125 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009

.AVIATION...06Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE FROM A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.  PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

AFTER A ACTIVE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CWA FINALLY CATCHING A 
BREAK FROM THE SNOW TODAY. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT THE BIG SNOW FROM TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SHIFT 
EAST...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES 
REGIONS.  AT THE SFC...WINDS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THIS 
AFTERNOON...AS THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SHIFTED EAST...AND 
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE.  EVEN WITH CLEAR 
SKIES...THIS COLD AIRMASS AND FRESH SNOW PACK IS KEEPING TEMPS 
GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...BUT A FEW PLACES IN NC KS CREEPING 
NEAR THE LOWER TEENS.

NOT A LOT OF BIG CHANGES EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN 
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
SHOWING THE CWA REMAINING UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE MAIN 
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES 
GO...KEPT DRY FORECAST GOING...WITH NO NOTABLE SYSTEMS PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LATEST
SYSTEM IS PLENTY DRY...AND OTHER THAN A FEW/SCT PASSING
CLOUDS...SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

VERY COLD NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A 
WIND CHILL ADV ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT 
MORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN 
KS...GRADUALLY DOWN TO NEAR/BELOW 10 MPH...AND WITH LITTLE IN THE 
WAY OF CLOUDS AND THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...CONTINUED WITH TREND 
OF GOING WELL BELOW GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.  EVEN WITH THE 
LIGHTER WINDS...WITH LOWS PLUMMETING INTO/NEAR THE -10 TO -15 
DEGREES BELOW ZERO RANGE...EXPECTING WIND CHILLS TO DROP BELOW -20 
DEGREES.  WILL SEE SOME...BUT NOT MUCH...IMPROVEMENT WITH HIGHS 
TOMORROW.  THOUGH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND COLDEST AIR 
SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA...EXPECTING THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 
LOWER/MID TEENS.

LONG TERM...12Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS 
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 
PERIOD. 

MODELS HAVE A FEW SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD. 
THE MAIN WEATHER WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY. A 
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY ON 
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT. 
THERE IS ALSO A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT 
WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THAT THERE 
COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SINCE IT 
IS MOVING RAPIDLY AND HAS LITTLE STRENGTH DO NOT EXPECT THAT THERE 
WILL BE MUCH SNOW WITH IT. 

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY BUT TEMPERATURE FORECASTING 
COULD BE A CHALLENGE. NORTHWEST TO NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS OFF AND ON WARM ADVECTION WITH 
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB FLUCTUATING BETWEEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ZERO 
TO WELL BELOW ZERO DEG C. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A WARMING 
TREND. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST 
ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT 
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE TEMPERATURES COOL OFF A LITTLE AS 
A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE AREA. EARLY NEXT WEEK 
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST AND THERE IS A RETURN TO WARM 
ADVECTION AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WARMING. STILL WENT ON 
THE COOLER SIDE THAN MOST GUIDANCE SINCE WE HAVE QUITE A BIT OF SNOW 
ON THE GROUND AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$