FXUS61 KBGM 300900
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
400 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BRINGING LIGHT
RAIN TO THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND
THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING PERIODS OF
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRIER MILDER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT IN WRN PA AND WRN NY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CWA
THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS HAVE RISEN OR REMAINED IN
THE 50S. BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL FALL THROUGH THE
40S. HAVE GONE WITH A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND TODAY. PRECIP ALONG
THE FRONT HAS NOT AMOUNTED TO MUCH. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DRIED UP0 AS
THEY MOVED NORTHEAST. DESPITE THIS HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS BECAUSE
EVERYONE WILL GET SOMETHING. THE PRECIP MOVES OUT MIDDAY IN THE
FAR SE. 850MB TEMPS QUICKLY GO FROM POSITIVE TO BELOW ZERO C TODAY
BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL BE RAIN. MAYBE A FEW FLAKES
THIS AFTN IN NY AND LATE ENTIRE CWA. SINKING MOTION BEHIND THE
FRONT AND NOT COLD ENOUGH UNTIL LATE FOR MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT
THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY THIS EVE STILL IN LULL BUT CONTINUED LOW LEVEL ALIGNED FLOW
FROM 290. TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH FOR MODERATE LAKE INSTABILITY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LAYERS BUT
NOT EXPECTED TO DO MUCH TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT THE FLOW GOES TO W
OR WSW AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UL SHORT WAVE. THIS
GOES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY IN NY.
TUES AFTN TO TUES NGT THE FLOW WILL BE NEARLY WEST SO UPSTATE WILL
CONT TO HAVE SOME LES WITH THE BEST CHC IN NRN ONEIDA. PROBABLY
NOT ENOUGH DUE TO THE MARGINAL TEMP DIFFERENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY.
WEDNESDAY DRY WITH WAA ON BACK SIDE OF MID ATLANTIC SFC HIGH. THIS
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS STRONG STORM RACES NE THROUGH CWA THU.
PRECIP COMES IN WED NGT. WITH TRACK RIGHT THROUGH THE AREA PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN WED NGT. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN WHEN IT
WILL START. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE IT STARTING LATE WED. KEPT ZONES
DRY BUT UPPED POPS TO 20.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH
THE MAIN EMPHASIS ON A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE TN
VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE FAVORED ECMWF HAS ACTUALLY SPED UP
FROM PREV RUN AND LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR TO GFS/GGEM AND GEFS LOW
POSITION NEAR BGM AT 12Z THURS. WILL MAINTAIN OVERALL THEME OF
PREVIOUS FCST GRIDS WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST TRENDS.
THE ECMWF HAS ALSO COME IN A BIT WARMER WITH THE INITIAL SHOT OF WAA
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE RAIN LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. ALL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT SUB FREEZING AIR AT 850
MB WILL BE ARRIVING BY 00Z FRI. WILL INTRODUCE A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO START MIXING IN BY
THE END OF THE DAY. BLYR TEMPS WILL STILL ONLY BE FALLING TO ABOUT
35-40 AND ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY AT
THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PULLING OUT AT THE
SAME TIME. A LIKELY OCCURANCE OF RAIN CHANGING TO MIXED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD COVER THURSDAY.
THEN...MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS
DOMINATED BY COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BELOW 850 MB AND CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WITH OCCASIONAL PASSAGES OF MINOR S/WV TROFS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GOOD CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY
AND FLURRIES FURTHER SOUTH UNTIL MODERATING HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING INTO THE TN VALLEY BY SUNDAY...GRADUALLY CUTTING DOWN ANY
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL.
TEMPS THURSDAY WILL START MILD FOLLOWED BY MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACTUALLY FEEL UNUSUAL SINCE IT WILL
BECOME MUCH COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS FALL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. PERIODS OF RAIN
WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
A FEW HOURS AFTER. IMPROVEMENT TO BKN-OVC 4K-10K FOOT VFR CIGS IS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW-NW FROM 14Z-16Z ACROSS CENTRAL NY
TERMINALS AND 17Z-18Z AT KAVP. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NITE...IMPROVING TO VFR CIGS. CHC MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH -SHSN.
TUE...VFR/MVFR. SCT -SHSN SE LAKE ONTARIO.
WED...VFR.
THUR....MVFR IN RAIN.
FRI...VFR. OCNL MVFR NEAR KSYR-KRME POSSIBLE DUE TO -SHSN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
UPDATED...MONDAY MORNING
THE RECORD FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF CALENDAR DAYS WITH LESS THAN
ONE INCH OF SNOW CONTINUES. SEE CLIMATE REPORT ISSUED ON THE 29TH
FOR THE 28TH. SEE THE RECORD REPORT ON THE INTERNET UNDER LOCAL
CLIMATE. HTTP:/WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/CLIMATE/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BGM THE
SYRACUSE AREA HAS NOT HAD AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR
DAY SINCE FEBRUARY 24TH. THE WHOLE MONTH OF MARCH HAD LESS THAN AN
INCH OF SNOW WHICH SET A RECORD. THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED FROM THE
THREADEX DATABASE USING DATA FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT JUST THE
AIRPORT. THESE RECORDS GO BACK TO 1902.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT AN
INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR DAY FOR SYRACUSE.
YEARDAYS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
1) 2009 278 DAYS FEB 25TH TO NOV 29TH SO FAR
2) 1946 276 DAYSFEB 28TH TO NOV 30TH
3) 1998274 DAYSMAR 23RD TO DEC 21ST
4) 1978 265 DAYS MAR 7TH TO NOV 26TH
5) 1941 263 DAYS MAR 22ND TO DEC 9TH
SYRACUSE MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH ONLY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF AN INCH IS LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JAB
CLIMATE...TAC
