FXUS61 KBGM 060611
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
111 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE STORM THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY WILL MOVE
OUT TO SEA TONIGHT... WITH SNOW ENDING ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER COLD AIR BEHIND THE STORM WILL HELP GENERATE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN PARTS OF NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THIS MORNING/...
STEADY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. WILL CANCEL
THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE FAR EAST BY 930 PM. CLEARING IS MOVING
EAST FROM WESTERN NEW YORK AND COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE FINGER
LAKES AREA BY MIDNIGHT... HOWEVER SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF SYRACUSE... AND ARE MOVING
SOUTH.
THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO SET UP FROM AROUND 310 DEGREES
OVERNIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -11... WHICH
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HISTORICAL ANALOGS
INDICATE MULTIBANDS FROM SYR SOUTH TO NEAR BGM WITH THIS PATTERN
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. BUF 6 KM WRF ENSEMBLE IS ALSO INDICATING
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT ACROSS ONONDAGA AND CORTLAND
COUNTIES. THE LATEST 00Z NAM IS ALSO INDICATING SOME LIGHT QPF IN
THAT GENERAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
BASED ON THIS WILL INCREASE THE POPS TO LIKELY FROM ONONDAGA TO
CORTLAND COUNTIES TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION UP TO AN INCH OR 2 OF
SNOW IN THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE WILL FORECASTING SOME CLEARING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS THIS PRECIP ENDS A COLDER NW LL FLOW SETS UP. LAKE INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL CREATE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN
CENT NY. SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK TO BE GREAT WITH THE LL
INVERSION AROUND 8K FT AND TEMP DIFFERENTIAL ONLY ENOUGH FOR
CONDITIONAL LAKE INSTABILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /5 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLOW SHIFTS FROM 310 LATE TONIGHT TO 280 SUNDAY. LOW LEVELS DRY
OUT AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
SHIFT NE INTO ONLY ONEIDA THEN STAY THERE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT A WEAK TROF GOES THROUGH QUICKLY ON
ZONAL FLOW WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. LITTLE FORCING
AND MOISTURE SO AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. BRIEFLY ON THE BACK SIDE NW
CAA WILL SET UP SOME LAKE EFFECT MONDAY OVERNIGHT TO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY ENDING THE SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS STILL INDICATES THAT A RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORM
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN U.S...STARTING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST
EURO/GFS/CANADIAN RUNS...AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES...SUGGEST THAT
THE MAIN PARENT LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST...THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...MICHIGAN...AND INTO EASTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE...TO
VARYING DEGREES...THERE ARE HINTS OF SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD POINT TOWARDS SNOW AT THE
ONSET LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A PROGGED STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW/WARM ADVECTION SITUATION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG
WITH PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR THESE KINDS OF EVENTS...WOULD IMPLY A
TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION...AND THEN ULTIMATELY RAIN FOR
AT LEAST THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED STORM...A MUCH COLDER WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN WILL SET IN FROM THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...WE'LL GO WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES...AS THE LAKE-EFFECT MACHINE GETS CRANKED UP THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME LES CONTS THIS MRNG...MAINLY AT SYR AND RME. FLOW FAVORS SOME
CONTD LES THIS MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN...AND THEN FLOW BACKS AND
SLOWLY LIFTS THE LES BANDS NORTH OF BOTH STATIONS LTR TODAY.
OTRW...GNRLY VFR CONDS XPCTD AS HIPRES BLDS IN IN THE WAKE OF THE
SAT LOW. WLY WINDS TODAY WILL BE SW AND LGTR TNGT AS THE HIPRES
DROPS SE TO THE CST.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT...VFR.
MON/MON NGT/TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
TUE NGT...VFR.
WED...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW/RAIN.
WED NGT/THU...MVFR IN SHOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ
