FXUS64 KSJT 160507
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1107 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
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.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
21
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.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009/
UPDATE...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO SKY AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT BASED ON TRENDS DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME PATCHY ALTO STRATUS FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK. THUS...NO OTHER CHANGES.
RECENT ZONE PRODUCT REFLECTS THESE GRID EDITS.
23/HUBER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009/
SHORT TERM...
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY...AND DESPITE SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA...WE WERE STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...AS SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS
DIMINISH...LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3
OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PRECIPITATION FOR
SOUTH TEXAS...BUT NOT FOR OUR AREA. WE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...AND THE BEST LIFT WILL BE KEPT SOUTH AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
TOMORROW...WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE WITH A FEW 60S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.
20
LONG TERM...
LATEST NAM IS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS RELATIVE
TO THE EASTWARD TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY AS ASSOCIATED
PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIN ON
THURSDAY...LOOKING FOR A GOOD WARM-UP IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT SCHEDULED TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE
BLENDED THE GFS AND NAM HIGHS ON THURSDAY WEIGHTED TO THE NAM
GUIDANCE... SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 60S AREA WIDE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MORNING LOWS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 30S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS COOLING TO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S POST-FRONTAL ON SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. SUNDAY WILL WARM TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SCHEDULED FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 24 52 36 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 25 58 34 66 34 / 10 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 29 58 35 67 36 / 10 10 10 0 10
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.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
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$$
