FXUS61 KCTP 020604
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
104 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST STATES ON WEDNESDAY.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
ALL NIGHT. AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMALS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS EVENING AS 1024
MB SFC RIDGE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SLOWLY NUDGES OFFSHORE. 
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP...IN ADVANCE OF THE HIGHER CLOUDS
FROM THE S...WHICH WILL THICKEN SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND KEEP MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM GOING TOO
FAR BELOW FREEZING. NRN VALLEYS WILL STAY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY REACH THE MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
NEXT STORM ALREADY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE GULF STATES. STRONG S/W
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CENTRAL TROF WILL AMPLIFY IT
FURTHER...DRAWING LOTS OF GOMEX MSTR INTO THE ERN STATES. LOW
TRACK HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC FOR THE MDLS TO CENTER ON A CONSISTENT
TRACK...BUT SREF SEEMS THE BEST ROUTE - AND THAT WOULD TAKE IT
OVER OUR WRN HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...SO MUCH WARM/MOIST AIR IS
WRAPPED IN/AROUND THE STORM THAT IT WILL BE ALL RAIN...NOT EVEN A
WORRY FOR ELEVATION SNOWS THIS TIME. THE CLOUDS WILL BE
THICKENING FAST WED AM...AND RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE LATE AM S...NOON
C...AND AFTN NE. THUS...WILL GIVE IT HIGH POPS LATE WED AND ALL
WED NIGHT. PWATS RISE TO 1.5 INCHES IN THE SE DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE STORM...BUT IT IS A FAST-MOVING THING. 130KT JET CORE WILL
DRIVE IT THRU THE AREA IN 15-18 HRS. INSTABILITY DOES LOWER AS THE
DRY PUNCH MOVES IN LATE AT NIGHT AND THURS AM. BUT...WILL NOT INCL
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR AREAS W OF UNV...AS LI/S WAY TOO STABLE
THAT FAR W. DYNAMICS ARE VERY STRONG WITH 50+ VORT MAX ROLLING
OVERHEAD...SO FEEL MENTION OF T IS WARRANTED. 

TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE AVERAGES ON WED THANKS TO THE SRLY FLOW AND
8H TEMPS RISING TO NEAR +10C. THE TEMPS WON/T BE TOO MUCH ABV ON
WED THANKS TO CLOUDS THICKENING FAST AND GOOD INVERSION. THEY WILL
STAY MILD ALL WED NIGHT...WENT CLOSE TO MOSGUIDE BIAS CORRECTED
NUMS. TEMPS ON THURSDAY LOOK VERY WARM AGAIN IN THE SE...AS
SUNSHINE BREAKS THRU THERE. NW WILL BE VERY CLOUDY AND AS USUAL
WILL NOT GET TOO FAR ABOVE 40F. WHICH IS JUST A FEW DEGS ABOVE
MORNING MINS. THEY MAY EVEN HAVE A NON-DIURNAL TREND...BUT WILL
JUST GO STEADY FOR NOW.  

RA SHUD TAPER OFF TO SCT SHRA IN THE W THURS AM...AND DRY UP OVER
THE SERN 2/3RDS. THE TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX IN LATE
IN THE DAY...BUT NOT TOTALLY TURN OVER...AND BY THAT TIME NOT MUCH
MSTR IS LEFT. NO NEED TO MENTION ANY ACCUMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE THUR NGT WITH TEMPS LKLY BEGINNING
THEIR FALL THUR AFTN GIVEN INC CAA. COLD/BRIEF OVER-LAKE FETCH
SHOULD BRING SNOW SHWRS INTO THE WRN ALLEGHENIES FRI AM BEFORE THE
LLVL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. A LGT ACCUM IS PSBL ACROSS THE NW
SNOWBELT AS WELL AS THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS.

MDLS SHOW A SECOND STORM SYS LIFTING NEWD OFF THE ECOAST THIS
WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO DIRECTLY AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.
GFS 06Z RUN ATTEMPTED TO BRING THE STORM FURTHER WEST...BUT
LATEST 12Z RUN AGAIN FALLS IN LINE WITH FURTHER EAST TRACK. GEFS
DATA SUGGESTS WE STAY IN A COOL CYC FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
H5 FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND H85 TEMPS MODERATE BACK
TWD NORMAL. NEXT SHOT AT SIG PRECIP LOOKS TO BE NEXT TUE NIGHT
INTO WED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LGT SSW WIND AND MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HI PRES
RIDGE PASSES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SOME FOG APPEARS LIKELY
LATE TONIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY WHERE WINDS HAVE ALREADY
GONE CALM. HOWEVER...A QUICK LOOK AT DWPT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST
PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA. FOR NOW
WILL INCLUDE A MVFR VSBY GROUP ONLY AT KMDT BASED ON LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
ELSEWHERE. ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD PUT THE
BREAKS ON RAD COOLING AND TEND TO DISPERSE ANY FOG TOWARDS DAWN.

VFR CONDS SHOULD RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR LATE WED
AFTN/EVENING...AS LOW PRES LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...SPREADING RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL PA.
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS/RAIN EXPECTED WED NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR/IFR W SHSN - VFR E. 
FRI...VFR/MVFR W. VFR ELSEWHERE. 
SAT...VFR LIKELY. 
SUN...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/BEACHLER
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/BEACHLER