FXUS61 KBGM 260754
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
254 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 
MORNING HOURS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE 
IN THE DAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE 
EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO 
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW 
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO 
ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL 
BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN CATSKILLS WITH 
SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA FRIDAY 
NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH 
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC LOPRES HAS DVLPD OFF THE SE COAST AND H5 LOW IS DIVING THRU THE 
UPPER MIDWEST AS EXPECTED. CWA RMNS IN BTWN SYSTEMS FOR THE TIME 
BEING. ONLY SIGNIFICANCE FOR THIS MRNG IS LOW-LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED 
UNDER INVERSION. DRY SLOT WORKED IN EARLIER TO SXNS OF REGION. AS 
SKIES CLEARED DENSE FOG OCCURRED BRIEFLY. THIS WILL LKLY BE THE CASE 
THRU THE EARLY MRNG HRS BUT CONDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH NO ONE PLACE 
SEEING WIDESPREAD FOG THIS MRNG. HV ADDED IN PATCHY FOG TO GRIDS 
THRU 13Z FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. ONLY PLACE 
WHERE FOG MAY BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD IS ACRS THE POCONOS AND 
WILL WORD AS SUCH. OTHER THAN THAT...PATCHY FOG WILL SUFFICE FOR 
THIS MRNG. 

UL LOW WILL MV IN FM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTN WITH AN INCRS IN POPS 
AFT 21Z AS FRCG FM THIS FEATURE APPCHS. AT THE SAME TIME...LOPRES 
WILL WORK UP FM THE SOUTH BUT EXPECT PCPN FM THIS FEATURE WILL RMN 
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA TODAY.

WITH CLDS ENTRENCHED ACRS THE FA FOR MOST OF TODAY...DO NOT SEE A 
BIG TEMP RISE DRG THE AFTN. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE BUT 
WILL STICK WITH SLGTLY COOLER MET VALUES FOR AFTN MAXES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
H5 LOW WILL ROTATE THRU CWA TONIGHT AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE EAST 
COAST. PCPN WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO WRN SXNS EARLY THIS 
EVNG...OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE FA SHORTLY AFT 00Z AND 
MOST CERTAINLY BY MIDNIGHT. WILL SHOW GRADUAL INCRS IN POPS THRU THE 
NIGHTTIME HRS...BUMPING ERN ZONES TO CATEGORICAL AFT 06Z. THIS IS IN 
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SFC LOW AND INCRSG LIFT ACRS THE AREA AS UPPER 
LOWS MV THRU. 

CLDR AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO FA AFT 06Z TONIGHT. EXPECT 
ALL LIQUID PCPN THRU THIS TIME...WITH A GRADUAL MIX IN THE HIGHEST 
ELEVATIONS ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER BTWN 06Z-09Z. BY 09Z...MOST OF 
THE REGION WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH STILL ALL RAIN EXPECTED ACRS 
PARTS OF THE LK PLAIN. 

BY 12Z FRIDAY SFC LOPRES IS PROGGED TO NR CAPE COD WITH NW FLOW 
BEING PULLED IN BHND SYSTEM. TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL ALOFT BUT BNDRY 
LAYER MAY WARM ENUF AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TO TURN PCPN BACK TO ALL 
RAIN OR KEEP RA/SN MIX IN VLYS DRG THE DAY FRIDAY. CONCERN WILL 
CENTER ON HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GFS BUFKIT SNDGS INDICATE ELEVATIONS 
ABV APPROX 1800FT WILL STAND BEST CHC OF SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWS 
ON FRIDAY. 00Z NAM IS WARMER THAN GFS AND ALSO WARMER THAN ITS 18Z 
COUNTERPART. 

DRG THE DAY FRIDAY LOW IS PROGGED TO HEAD INTO INTERIOR SXNS OF 
MAINE WITH H5 LOW BISECTING CWA AND H7 LOW CUTTING THRU UPSTATE NY 
PER GFS. LATEST EURO TAKES SFC LOW FURTHER EAST TWD NOVA SCOTIA DRG 
THE DAY...FLINGING LESS MOISTURE BACK ACRS PORTIONS OF THE FA AND 
INDICATING PCPN CONFINED MORE TO OUR EAST. 

IN CONTRAST...LATEST GFS HINTING AT POSSIBLE DEFORMATION BAND FRI 
AFTN ACRS ERN ZONES. BY THIS TIME...BL TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO PLAY A 
ROLE IN PCPN TYPE. ALTHO NOT SO MUCH A CONCERN ACRS THE TUG HILL/WRN 
CATS IT CERTAINLY WILL BE A FACTOR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS IS 
WHERE A DEFORMATION BAND SETTING UP ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL HRS OF HVY 
SNOW WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN MODERATE SNOW ACCUMS VS. PLAIN 
RAIN. LIFT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE VRY IMPRESSIVE PER 00Z BUFKIT SNDGS 
WITH BEST OMEGA OCCURRING LATE THUR NGT. THUS THERE IS STILL A 
QUESTION AS TO PCPN TYPE DRG THE DAY FRIDAY AT ALL BUT THE HIGHEST 
ELEVATIONS...ASSUMING A BAND CAN SET UP. AFT VIEWING 00Z 
ECMWF...CONFIDENCE IN MODELS CONTS TO DWINDLE AND DO NOT FEEL IT 
PRUDENT TO MAKE MANY CHGS THRU SHORT TERM. 

STILL LOOKING AT GOOD CHC FOR PCPN DRG THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN INTO 
FRI NGT/SAT AS LK EFFECT KICKS IN. RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHG OVR TO 
SNOW FRI NGT WITH ACCUM/S POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LK ONTARIO. IN 
ADDITION TO THE SNOW...WIND WILL ALSO BCM A CONCERN BY FRI NGT. 
LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE INCRSG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC FRI NGT 
INTO SAT MRNG WITH H8 WINDS INCRSG TO 50KTS. SPEEDS STRONGEST IN THE 
GFS AS IT BRINGS LOPRES CLOSEST TO AREA. HWVR EURO ALSO SHOWS INCRSG 
SPEEDS FRI NGT THRU SAT MRNG UNTIL LOW PULLS NORTHEAST AND PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. WILL HIGHLIGHT WIND THREAT IN HWO FOR THE 
TIME BEING. 

LK EFFECT WILL LKLY WIND DOWN LATE SAT NGT AS FLOW SHIFTS TWD THE SW 
UNDER RISING HGTS. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM. MORE UNSETTLED WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD
LATELY. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW SAT NGT SHD RESULT IN A FEW MORE SHWRS OTRW HIPRES BLDS IN
SFC AND ALOFT CLRG WILL BE SHRT LIVED AS ANOTHER WV AND SFC FNT
APPCHS LATE MON AND EARLY TUE. CRNT MODEL SOLNS ARE BASICALLY A
COMPROMISE OF EARLIER RUNS WITH A PROGRESSIVE FNT BUT WITH A
DEEPENING LOW NORTH OF NEW ENG. OPERATIONAL GFS IS STILL FCSTG A
DEEPER LOW AND THEN FLWS WITH MORE CAA BHD THE FNT. EITHER WAY
IT/S A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR BEFORE RDGG RETURNS LTR WED. 

ONCE AGAIN FLWD THE LATEST HPC GUID WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS OF THE
POPS AND TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST SITUATION SETTING UP. THE MAIN FACTORS
INCLUDE SATURATED TERRAIN FROM EARLIER RAINS, AN OCCLUDED FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST, A MARINE LAYER ENCROACHING FROM
THE SE AGAIN, ALONG WITH A LARGE AREA OF CLEARING WHICH THREATENS
TO OVERTAKE LARGELY VFR CLOUD COVER ACROSS NY/PA TERMINALS.

LESS CLOUDS IN THE FINGER LAKES TO KELM HAVE ALLOWED IFR RADIATIONAL
FOG TO FORM. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THERE AND WILL PROBABLY WORSEN.
THE MARINE LAYER HAS GOTTEN TO KMPO AND KMSV SO KAVP SHOULD HAVE
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS BY 09Z, POSSIBLY DROPPING TO IFR AROUND 11Z.
THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE FURTHER NW INTO THE NY TAF SITES BY 11Z.
KSYR WILL BE LAST TO FALL IF IT DROPS TO MVFR AT ALL. KBGM WITH
ITS HIGHER ELEVATION COULD DROP TO IFR AROUND 12Z. VSBYS COULD
ALSO DROP TO MVFR. LATE THIS MORNING SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
AGAIN. THIS EVENING THE FRONT MOVES IN WITH SHOWERS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS.

WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS FROM THE SE TO S EARLY THIS MORNING. DURING
THE DAY AROUND 5 KTS THEN THIS EVENING A WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT
TO W AND NW.

OUTLOOK...

LATE THUR NGT-FRI...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY...IN RAIN AND/OR
WET SNOW. 
FRI NGT-SAT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE...IN
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. 
SUN...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LIKELY. 
MON...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...DGM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC