FXUS65 KSLC 021115
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
415 AM MST WED DEC 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD AND GENERALLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS UTAH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA FRIDAY...AND SETTLE
INTO NORTHERN UTAH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN A DRY/COLD NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TO BREAK THROUGH THE ERN PACIFIC RIDGE
WILL DO SO ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH BRITCOL...THEN SETTLE INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN
ROCKIES AS A CLOSED LOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. 
RAPIDLY WARMING WESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BUMP TEMPS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIP LIKELY TO REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE THIS WEEKEND OWING TO THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ALREADY IN
PLACE AND THE LONG OVERLAND TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW. FOR NOW WILL
FOCUS THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ALONG THE NEAR 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER NRN UTAH AND BACK TOWARDS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ACROSS FAR
NRN UTAH/SRN ID.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS ARE STILL HOLDING
TO THE IDEA OF MIGRATING THE UPPER LOW WEST AND THEN TURNING THE
SYSTEM EAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
ALSO REMAINS CONSIST IN THAT THIS MODEL UNDERCUTS THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC...AND SENDS THE WESTERLIES
THROUGH CA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. NOT SEEING ANY REAL
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE MODELS...AND THUS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
ANY OF THE SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MODESTLY HIGH POPS GOING
FOR THE EXTEND PERIOD...WITH TEMPS REMAINING SOMEWHAT ON THE COOL
SIDE OWING TO THE THREAT OF PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM 
THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE FOR A PERIOD BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO 
LIFT ABOVE 6000 FEET BETWEEN 13-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...HOSENFELD

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)