FXUS63 KLSX 112215
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
415 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/413 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2009/

TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...1032MB SFC HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE TN 
VALLEY AT 21Z YIELDING SWLY WINDS ACROSS THE BISTATE REGION UNDER 
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EWD...CONTINUED S TO SW 
WINDS WILL LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE 
WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED ON SUN AS H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO 8-10 DEG C. NEXT 
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE BISTATE REGION ON SAT WITH SLY WINDS 
DRAWING WARMER AND MOISTER AIR NWD AHEAD OF ITS ARRIVAL. MAINTAINED 
SCHC-CHC POPS FOR SAT AFTN THROUGH SAT NIGHT BASED ON TIMING OF UL 
ASCENT.

MON THROUGH FRI...NEXT SYS TO AFFECT THE REGION ORGANIZES OVER THE 
PLAINS ON SUN NIGHT/MON WITH REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE SFC 
LOW TRACKING THROUGH NWRN MO ON MON. THIS SYS DRIVES A CDFNT THROUGH 
THE BISTATE REGION ON MON INTO MON NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND 
THE FNT. CONTINUED SILENT SCHC POPS AS MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH 
THIS SYS. HIGH PRES SLIDES SEWD FM THE NRN PLAINS AND SETTLES OVERHEAD 
FOR TUE NIGHT. WITH GFS/EC/GEM NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON SWD EXTENT 
OF COLD AIR...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ON MON NIGHT AND TUE 
TO TREND TOWARDS THE COLDER SOLN.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION...
/1044 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR TO PREVAIL FOR ENTIRE TAF PD WITH S-SWLY
WINDS BECOMING SELY. PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND ISENTROPIC ANALYSES
MOISTURE ADVECTING ALONG THE 290-295K SURFACES LENDING TO SCT-BKN
CIGS AROUND 6-7KFT ACROSS OK-AR REGION. CONFIDENT THIS MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE SURGING NEWD INTO SRN MO LENDING TO SCT070 AT 0Z
BECOMING BKN060 BY 15Z SAT FOR ALL LOCALES EXCLUDING KUIN.

SIPPRELL

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

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