FXUS63 KSGF 071713
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1113 AM CST MON DEC 7 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

A COMPLEX AND CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS IN THE OFFING. A POTENT STORM
SYSTEM...NOW OVER THE WEST COAST...WILL BRING A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE OZARKS AND A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE REGION WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40 THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM THOUGH THE LATEST RUNS LOOK TO HAVE THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST...SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS RUN. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
THAT WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO LAG
THE PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA. THERMAL PROFILES AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN AS
WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
KS/OK BORDER. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH
THE OZARKS IN THE WARM AIR AHEAD AND SOUTH OF THE LOW. THIS WILL
KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION LIQUID UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THIS OCCURS AND TEMPERATURES
FALL BEHIND THE FRONT...ANY LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
SNOW...THOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

AS HAS BEEN STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE LATEST
INFORMATION SHOULD BE MONITORED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM AS EVEN A
SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM COULD BRING CHANGES TO THE
WEATHER FOR THE AREA.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA ONCE THE COLD FRONT
PASSES AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE -10 TO -14 DEGREE CELSIUS
RANGE AND REMAIN BELOW FREEZING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
SWINGS ACROSS THROUGH A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. WILL WATCH THIS
THOUGH TO SEE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM.

OVERALL...THIS APPEARS TO BE A WINTRY WEEK WITH MIXED WINTER
PRECIPITATION AND COOL TEMPERATURES. 

HATCH

&&

.AVIATION...

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE TIMING 
OF IFR CEILINGS.  MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT OVER SPRINGFIELD 
AND JOPLIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING AND DRY ADVECTION FROM THE 
NORTHWEST.  BRANSON IS EXPECTED TO STAY DOWN IN MVFR CONDITIONS 
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING EASTERLY PROVIDING GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW.  
CONDITIONS FOR ALL AERODROME WILL DEGRADE TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE 
MORNING AS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

KARDELL

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$