FXUS64 KLUB 090533
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009
.AVIATION...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM AND THE INTRUSION OF A VERY COLD AIR MASS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/
SHORT TERM...
20Z SATELLITE/RADAR TREND HAS THE PRECIP BAND THAT HAS LINGERED
TODAY DISSIPATING AS IT PUSHES EWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
CONTINUE PICKING UP BEFORE SUNSET. THEN THE NEXT MAJOR FEATURE
WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AOA 03Z FOR THE NERN AREA...THEN
PUSHING SEWRD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THE NERN ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 15KT RANGE JUST BEHIND FROPA. DON/T FORESEE MUCH IN
THE FORM OF MOISTURE AT ANY LEVEL...GIVEN PROGGED ZONAL FLOW AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. ALSO...THE FRONT WILL PUSH DRY AND COLD
AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THOUGH...SOME MOISTENING OF THE
LOW LEVEL IS PROGGED FOR THE WRN EDGE OF THE CWA. ALSO...WILL LET
THE HIGH WIND WARNING/ADVISORY RUN OUT AT 00Z.
LONG TERM...
FORECAST CHALLENGES DIMINISH LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT AND ZONAL BEHIND TODAY/S
NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROF. DESPITE THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL PROVE
RATHER COMPLEX INITIALLY AS TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF
THE AREA BEFORE MEANDERING NORTH ON THURSDAY. MODELS MAY BE TOO
BULLISH IN ERODING THE COLD DOME NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SO
TEMPS WERE WARMED RATHER CONSERVATIVELY.
FOCUS BY THIS WEEKEND WILL CENTER ON A POLAR VORTEX IN SRN CANADA
FORECAST TO SEND ANOTHER ARCTIC BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE
CONUS. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SUSPICIOUSLY FLAT WITH THIS VORTEX
RELATIVE TO THE ECMWF...BOTH MODELS DO ADVERTISE THIS NEXT COLD
FRONT TO IMPACT THE CWA EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRESENCE OF A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROF ALONG THE CA BAJA MAY LEND MORE SUPPORT TO INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES LOCALLY...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS POTENTIAL WAVE TO KEEP POPS SILENT AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 14 38 14 44 21 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 16 32 17 38 22 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 17 33 20 42 24 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 19 38 21 52 26 / 10 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 19 36 22 48 25 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 26 47 26 53 30 / 10 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 22 41 22 53 28 / 10 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 19 32 18 41 25 / 10 0 10 0 0
SPUR 20 36 22 44 23 / 10 0 0 0 10
ASPERMONT 23 37 21 48 26 / 10 0 0 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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