FXUS63 KMKX 290950
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
350 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM 

CLOUDS CURRENTLY INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS AN UPPER
WAVE ACROSS NRN MINNESOTA HEADS FOR THE STATE...AND A WEAK SFC LOW
SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
TODAY...MAINLY BEFORE NOON. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO THE UPPER WAVE. BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
SLIDE BY TO THE NORTH AS THE JET PULLS AWAY. CURRENTLY ONLY SEEING
SPARSE REPORTS OF MEASURABLE RAIN AND SNOW WITH PRECIP BAND OVER
SRN MN. GIVEN ALL THIS...DECIDED TO KEEP POPS LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE...WITH CHANCE POPS ONLY ACROSS THE WEST. COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER WITH THE SFC LOW...BUT MOST OF
THAT WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE AS THE LOW DOES NOT
REALLY DEEPEN UNTIL CROSSING INTO MI. WILL SEE COOLER TEMPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY...BUT REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

A WEAK WAVE COULD BRING A FEW FLURRIES TO THE NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS MODELS
KEEP THE NEXT SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PULL
UP MILDER AIR...WITH HIGHS PUSHING A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

MODELS DIFFER SOME ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS A BIT QUICKER...BUT THE GAP IN TIMING
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS HAS GOTTEN SMALLER IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. MODELS
KEEP THE CWA DRY...SO ONLY ISSUES WERE WITH TIMING OF COLDER AIR
AND WIND SHIFT. WITH DIFFERENCES NOT TOO LARGE...WENT WITH A
GENERAL BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THE UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY...BUT CHANCE SEEM SMALL AT THIS
POINT. MAIN STORY WILL BE COLDER TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
REGION THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS FALLING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT IFR CIGS TO SPREAD OVER REGION LATER THIS 
MORNING...A COMBINATION OF LOW CIGS OVER LWR MICHIGAN BEING DRAWN 
ACROSS LK MI INTO THE EASTERN TAF SITES WITH NE WINDS AHEAD OF 
DEEPENING SFC LOW...AND LOW CAA STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AND 
SRN IA ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW.  

WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON PCPN AT TAF SITES. BUT BASED ON 
LACK OF SFC REPORTS WITH ACCAS SHOWERS OVER NE IA...AND SCT TRACE TO 
A FEW HUNDREDTHS REPORTS FROM UNDER PCPN TO THE NW...WILL PROBABLY 
STAY WITH VICINITY SHOWERS FOR NOW...AND ADJUST. MOS GUIDANCE 
APPEARS TO BE TOO QUICK CLEARING CLOUDS...BUT WILL LIFT TO AT LEAST 
MVFR LEVELS BY 00Z MONDAY. 

&&

.MARINE...WILL BE ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR 21Z TODAY 
THROUGH 10Z MONDAY FOR STRENGTHENING NW WINDS IN WAKE OF SURFACE LOW 
THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN LAKES THIS EVENING. 

ARGUMENT COULD BE MADE THAT THE SCA COULD RUN FROM 21Z TODAY 
THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY...BUT WEAK RIDGING LOWERS WINDS LATE IN THE 
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...TOO MUCH OF A BREAK TO 
KEEP A HEADLINE ESPECIALLY WITH OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT PREVENTING 
WAVES FROM REMAINING AT CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON MONDAY UNTIL MID 
MORNING TUESDAY AND WILL MENTION AN ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE 
MONDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD...BUT NO COMPETING HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CST MONDAY 
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...DDV/07
AVIATION/MARINE...REM/09