FXUS64 KHGX 272336
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
536 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY AFTER 15Z MID CLOUDS AROUND 5 THSD FEET AND
ANOTHER DECK AROUND 10 THOUSAND FEET WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BUT
EXPECT CONDS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INCREASING AFTER 15Z TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE...MAINLY
MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES. WINDS HAVE COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH
NEAR THE COAST AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE
BIG BEND REGION WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AND PASS NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT.
CUTOFF LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US THIS
WEEKEND AS THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ELONGATES ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL LOW.
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ATTM SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LOW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL COME BEFORE SUNRISE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
AS THE FRONT REACHES THE COAST AROUND 12Z AND COLD AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES WILL DROP TO NEAR 540 DM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS BUT WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING AM ONLY
EXPECTING A CHILLY RAIN EVENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL END AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...PAVING THE WAY FOR
YET ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ON THURSDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON BRINGING COLDER AIR OUR
WAY AND IS NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS IN BRINGING CANADIAN
AIR INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. 38
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 50 71 61 74 49 / 10 10 10 50 80
HOUSTON (IAH) 51 72 62 75 51 / 10 10 10 40 80
GALVESTON (GLS) 58 71 65 76 61 / 10 10 20 20 70
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...34
