FXUS64 KEWX 270527
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1127 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AOA 20 THOUSAND FT WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT LOWERING TO
10 THOUSAND FT ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
CONTINUE TO GENERATE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE L/V...BECOMING SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY EMANATE FROM THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH NO IMPACT
TO THE TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009/
UPDATE...
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE CIRRUS
WILL SLOWLY THICKEN OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY AND HAVE BOOSTED
SKY COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUICKER AS
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. CIRRUS HAVING
LESS IMPACT ON COOLING AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER LOWS IN
MANY AREAS. HAVE ADJUSTED DEWPOINT TRENDS FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS IT
APPEARS THAT MODELS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND ARE SLOWLY
COMING INTO AGREEMENT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009/
DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WE
HAD THIS MORNING AS THE CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTENING TREND WILL ENABLE A
COMBINATION OF DRIZZLE AND SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY MORE MILD BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S EACH
AFTERNOON. SPRINKLES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE.
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEFORE SLIDING
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MID/LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING PROBLEMS
RESOLVING HOW LONG THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE PICTURE. HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF A COOL AND WET OVERRUNNING PATTERN FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DRYING EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE FROPA PUSHING
THROUGH THE CWA LATE SUNDAY. THUS WILL SEE NEAR AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
SHOULD THE WETTER PATTERN PLAY OUT...WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF VERY
COLD RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
TUES AND WEDS MORNINGS WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS. THERE IS AN EXPECTATION
THAT WITH FURTHER MODEL RUNS THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL SHIFT
AND/OR CHANGE SPEED...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTRY PRECIP FORECAST
FOR TUES AND WEDS IS RELATIVELY LOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 42 71 52 72 62 / 0 - - 10 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 37 67 48 71 60 / 0 10 - 10 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 39 71 50 72 57 / 0 10 - 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 39 68 51 68 58 / 0 - - 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 42 64 49 72 57 / 0 10 0 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 39 69 51 70 61 / 0 - - 10 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 39 67 50 71 59 / 0 10 - 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 39 69 50 73 60 / 0 10 - 10 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 40 66 51 73 62 / 0 10 10 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 41 69 52 73 59 / 0 10 - 10 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 40 69 51 73 59 / 0 10 - 10 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04/13
