FXUS64 KSHV 062134
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
334 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS FILLING IN ACROSS CWA AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES. COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF PANHANDLES...WILL MOVE
INTO AREA LATER TONIGHT. COULD SEE ISOLD THUNDER IN SE CWA LATER
TONIGHT...HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY ELEVATED.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVAL WILL RESULT IN DECREASING
CLOUDS...BUT WILL NOT SCOUR OUT ALL LOW LVL MOISTURE...EXPECT
SCATTERED CUMULUS FROM LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS MONDAY AFTN.
TROFFING NEAR FOUR CORNERS REGION SITUATED NERA FOUR CORNERS
REGION TUESDAY MORNING...MID LVL JET STREAK ACCELERATING AROUND
BACKSIDE OF TROF...TRAJECTORY JUST WEST OF WEST COAST SHORELINE.
STRONG ONSHORE COMPONENT AS JET STREAK OF AROUND 100 KTS ROUNDS
BASE OF TROF. RICH MID AND UPPER LVL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
ACROSS TX...WITH JET NOSING INTO EAST TX BY MID AFTN TUESDAY.
LEFTOVER FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM MONDAY WILL BACK UP AS WARM FRONT.
STRONG DYNAMICS IN UPPER LEVELS COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE LOW LVL
VEERING...AND DEWPOINTS REACHING MID TO UPPER 60S ADVECTING INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA. LAPSE RATES WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR SVR
WX...BUT ANY NEGATIVE TILT WILL HELP MINIMIZE THAT INHIBITING FACTOR.
THIS WILL BE A VERY PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM AS THE MID LVL JET STREAK
CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD TO AROUND 120 KTS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS OHIO VALLEY./VII/
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS AROUND 3 KFT HAVE
DEVELOPED OF EAST TEXAS SITES AND SHV. THIS LOWERED CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST TO AFFECT THE REMAINING SITES BY
THIS EVENING. AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO LIGHT RAIN HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED
OVER EAST TEXAS AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALSO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST.
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...BEGINNING TO DECREASE OVER EAST TEXAS SITES BY
AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING...AND GIVING EASTERN SITES A BREAK BY
MONDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR MOST
SITES. FLIGHT CATEGORIES COULD DIP DOWN TO IFR FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS A RESULT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 16Z MONDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SWITCH AROUND
TO THE NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. /22/
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 42 56 47 60 47 / 60 10 70 60 50
MLU 46 55 46 60 50 / 70 30 60 80 70
DEQ 34 51 38 49 38 / 50 10 40 50 30
TXK 39 55 42 52 40 / 50 10 50 60 40
ELD 38 54 44 56 44 / 60 20 60 70 60
TYR 40 57 48 59 43 / 40 10 60 60 30
GGG 41 57 47 59 46 / 50 10 70 60 40
LFK 48 60 51 64 53 / 60 20 80 60 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
