FXUS63 KIND 280751
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
251 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

AT 07Z HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH SOME
CIRRUS AROUND. TEMPERATURES WERE COOL AND AROUND 30 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING.
UNFORTUNATELY THESE DIFFERENCES ARE AROUND THE 00Z TIME
FRAME...WHICH MAKE PINNING DOWN THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
MORE DIFFICULT. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARD FORECAST CONTINUITY
RATHER THAN PICK ONE SPECIFIC SOLUTION. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY WENT
WITH A BLEND OF GFS/NAM/SREF.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY WITH MAINLY
SOME THIN CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS. THIS SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH WARM
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR OVER A 20 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPERATURES
FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA. MAV/MET NUMBERS ARE
SIMILAR AND A BLEND LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. MAV/MET NUMBERS ARE SIMILAR AGAIN AND LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

ON SUNDAY MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AHEAD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
A CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN PART OF OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SO BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. DUE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMING QUESTIONS...AM HESITANT TO GO HIGHER
THAN CHANCE POPS AT THE MOMENT.

AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING TO SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL GO LIKELY POPS THERE AND CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE. DURING THE OVERNIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH AS
THE SYSTEM EXITS. 

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS 

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. TAFS WILL START OUT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST STATES INTO OHIO. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTROL INDIANAS WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
AIR ALONG WITH SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG
FORMATION. BY THE END OF THE TAF THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. THIS
FRONT WILL NOT BRING IN ANY WEATHER INTO INDIANA THAT COULD EFFECT
AVIATION UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...HAINES
PUBLIC...CS