FXUS62 KCAE 051935
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
235 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NC/VA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOPS SHOWS S/W PUSHING ACRS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY LIFTING NE/E AWAY FROM
THE AREA. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE DIMINISHING AS SYSTEM
EXITS THE REGION AND EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH 20 TO 25 KT LLJ
WINDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS
VERY CLOSE AND WILL STAY NEAR CONSENSUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA
SUN/SUN NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. S/W ENERGY MOVG ACRS THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EWD INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH BOTH MAV/NAM SHOWS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...FOR NOW
WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS. AT THE SURFACE...SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE
WEAK BY ALL MODELS WITH ONLY A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACRS THE AREA. ONLY ISSUE WITH SYSTEM WILL BE AMOUNT OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. WILL STAY ON
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND WARMER SIDE FOR LOWS
WITH EXPECTED MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUE...SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
APPROACHING SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES/CNTRL PLAINS. GFS
SHOWS GOOD INSENTROPIC DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WED MORNING. BOTH MAV/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR TUE...BUT MAV APPEARS FASTER IN HANDLING IN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVG INTO THE REGION BY THU/FRI THEN NEXT SYSTEM FOR SAT.
WILL KEEP CHC/LIKELY POPS FOR LATE TUE/EARLY WED...THEN DRY FOR
THU AND FRI. WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SAT AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES. WITH A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
COUNTRY AND FLOW BASICALLY FROM THE W/SW...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
NEAR/LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING VFR SKIES AND
VSBYS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING BACK INTO THE
REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...07
