FXUS64 KHGX 061131
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
531 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
AS STATED BEFORE THE MAIN ISSUE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 12Z TAF
PACKAGE WILL BE THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS. LOWERING CIGS HAS BEEN
PUSHED BACK TO 15-18Z TODAY. CIGS COULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY TO
IFR/LIFR LEVELS AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS SE TX. IFR/LIFR CIGS
COULD PERSIST WELL AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME AREAS OF 1/2 SM VIS AND FOG.
WINDS MAY JUST BE ENOUGH TO KEEP DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION. CIGS SHOULD RISE SOME AFTER 12Z MON BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
OVC CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EVEN FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AS WAA STRENGTHENS. LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS
SHOULD BE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AS TROUGHING ALONG AZ/NM BORDER
SHIFTS EAST. SPEED MAX OVER S TX EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PULL OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD BE THE NEEDED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO
ENHANCE RAINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR AMARILLO WILL DROP SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA MONDAY MORNING BRIEFLY
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES. MOISTURE POOLS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND IS
DRAWN BACK NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
AND SOUNDINGS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY BRIEFLY SUPPORT TSRA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT ACCOUNT...LOW ENOUGH THAT WILL BE
KEEPING IT SHRA FOR NOW...BUT AREAL COVERAGE LOOKS GOOD BOTH
TODAY AND TUESDAY. PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND DRIES THE AREA OUT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM VORT THAT ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON SHOULD TRACK BY TO THE NORTH
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF WITH MOISTURE BEING
RICHER AND BLANKETTING THE SRN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY RATHER
THAN THE GFS. HENCE HIGHER POPS AND WARMER TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AS A QUICK ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE OUR UPPER PATTERN DURING THE
WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY. 45
MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND CAUTION FLAGS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT BUT THEN SHIFT TO THE NE ON MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES OFF THE UPPER TX COAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
REQUIRE AN SCA.
39
AVIATION...
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE 12Z TAFS WILL BE THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS
DURING THE MORNING AND THEN DECREASING CIGS DURING THE DAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN/SHOWERS
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH
TO PUT TS IN THE TAFS. THE OTHER ISSUE IS HOW LONG IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SUN NIGHT.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 52 44 59 53 68 / 60 20 30 40 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 56 50 63 56 68 / 70 40 60 60 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 58 64 63 71 / 60 40 70 60 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...39
