FXUS64 KEWX 240549
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1149 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009
.AVIATION...
STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT NEAR A GEORGETOWN...NEW BRAUNFELS..
PLEASANTON LINE AT MIDNIGHT WITH ATTENDANT UPPER DISTURBANCE..
MOVING EAST AT 35 KTS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG
THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING ALONG THE I=35 CORRIDOR FROM
PEARSALL TO SAN ANTONIO. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD
AND MAY EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE KAUS AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. I-35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL IFR VSBYS IN
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TIL 07Z..THEN MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL MVFR VSBYS
IN MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS. AFTER 10Z CIGS LIFTING TO VFR WITH
CLEARING AFTER 15Z. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS T0
35 KTS BECOMING NORTH AT 15 KTS AFTER 23Z. KDRT TERMINAL VFR
CIGS WITH OCNL MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN TIL 07Z..THEN CLEARIN
AFTER 08Z. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTY..THEN LOWERING
AFTER 22Z TO NORTH AT 10 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009/
UPDATE...
THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WERE ENTERING CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AT MID EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACCOMPANIED THE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WERE SUBSIDENT AND
LIMITING INTENSITIES. SURFACE WINDS WERE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WAS MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH WITH THE BACK EDGE
(CLEARING AXIS) EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND EXITING REGION AROUND DAWN. THERE
REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND RICHER
GULF MOISTURE. CHANGED CLOUD GRIDS ON THE UPDATE..OTHERWISE
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE AT PRESENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009/
AVIATION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IN WEST TX WILL BLAST SEWD INTO THE WESTERN
HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS THIS EVENING INCLUDING KDRT
NEAR 03Z. SCT SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT IN THE WEST WITH
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME TEMPORARILY MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE
FRONT. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS BEHIND THE CDFNT AND SLY 5 TO
15 KNOTS AHEAD. BY 05Z SCT SHRA/TSRA COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE
GENERALLY EAST OF 281 UNTIL ABOUT 08Z. THE SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY 10Z WITH PATCHES OF -RA CONTINUING. CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR AFTER 24/12Z WITH GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH
THE REGION THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND SWEEP TO
THE COAST BY SUNRISE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM LLANO TO SAN ANTONIO TO VICTORIA. HAIL IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT BUT DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL SWEEP TO THE EAST BY DAWN WITH ONLY A
FEW LINGERING STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM
UNTIL 6 PM FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION. COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LIMITED
TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CLEARING SKIES...DECREASING WINDS...AND
CONTINUING CAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO THE FREEZING
MARK CHRISTMAS MORNING.
THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AND WREAK HAVOC ON THE
MIDWESTERN STATES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS POTENT SYSTEM
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA LIMITED TO THE 50S
WITH FREEZING LOWS AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL RE-ENTER THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
CREATING ANOTHER SERIES OF OVERCAST...CHILLY...AND DAMP DAYS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 47 53 31 52 33 / 80 - 0 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 45 52 30 52 28 / 80 - 0 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 46 57 32 54 30 / 70 - 0 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 41 49 29 48 27 / 80 - 0 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 45 62 33 54 33 / 30 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 46 50 29 49 30 / 80 - 0 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 44 61 30 54 29 / 50 0 0 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 49 54 29 53 30 / 80 - 0 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 51 56 31 52 31 / 80 10 - - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 48 58 31 55 33 / 60 0 0 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 49 60 32 55 33 / 60 0 0 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...
LEE...LLANO...MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.
&&
$$
02/01
