FXUS63 KDDC 232112
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
312 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE EAST FA AND THEN
STRONG WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
NEW MODEL RUNS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL AND LOW TO TRACK
WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND FROM NEW MEXICO TO CENTRAL TEXAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE NEW ECMWF IS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH. THEN IT
IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS BY
THURSDAY EVENING WHILE ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW ROTATES IN FROM
NEBRASKA ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON FRIDAY. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW THAT FAR SOUTH IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HOWEVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OF STAFFORD, PRATT, AND
BARBER COULD BE ON THE EDGE OF THE SNOW WITH THE GFS MODEL STILL
SHOWING 5 INCHES OR MORE WHILE THE NAM IS SHOWING AROUND 2 TO 3
INCHES. ALONG WITH THE SNOW THE WINDS WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE
AROUND MIDNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING AS ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO THE
REGION. SO WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GO AHEAD AND
GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES TOTAL SNOWFALL. SOME
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MORNING. THIS
WILL FIT WITH BOTH OUN TO OUR SOUTH AND ICT WARNINGS JUST TO THE
EAST OF THOSE COUNTIES. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA LOOK FOR VERY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE
SWITCHED THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WATCH TO A WIND ADVISORY WITH NORTH
WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 4O OR 45
MPH ESPECIALLY NORTH INTO THE WAKEENEY AND HAYS AREAS. WIND CHILLS
COULD ALSO REACH NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND -15 BELOW ZERO LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR DODGE CITY AND NORTH.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT WILL GO WITH UPPER TEENS WEST AND NORTH TO MID 20S
BY MEDICINE LODGE. ON THURSDAY HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW 20S
EXCEPT FOR MID 20S SOUTHEAST FA. ON THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS COULD DIP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 12 FOR THE SOUTHEAST AREA. ON
CHRISTMAS DAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH COULD ALSO
PERSIST INTO CHRISTMAS DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH HALF OF THE FA.
DAYS 3-7...
A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS STILL PROGGED TO WORK ITS WAY
ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD WITH 85H MIX DOWN
TEMPS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
BOTH DAYS. ADD A LITTLE SNOW COVER IN THE EAST EVEN THESE COOL TEMPS
MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH SO HAVE BACKED OFF A COUPLE OF DEGREES EAST OF
DDC BOTH FOR SAT AND SUN HIGHS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OUR NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LVL SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SW CONUS. ALL THE MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING
AND TRACK AS IT CROSSES SRN CALIFORNIA INTO AZ SOMETIME MONDAY. AS A
RESULT CONFIDENCE ON WHEN THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS TOWARDS MID WEEK REMAINS LOW SO AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED TO
STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS SO WILL FOCUS ON TIMING OF STRONG WINDS THAT WILL BE
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT. ONCE THESE WINDS DEVELOP THEY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR CIGS...ANY
LINGERING IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVRF
CONDITIONS (010-015) AFTER SUNSET WITH DDC POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
THE IFR CATEGORY TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 19 22 8 24 / 20 20 20 10
GCK 18 21 7 22 / 20 20 10 10
EHA 18 22 11 25 / 20 20 0 0
LBL 19 22 11 25 / 20 20 0 0
HYS 20 21 7 20 / 20 20 20 20
P28 25 26 12 25 / 70 70 30 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ066-081-
090.
&&
$$
FN06/18
