FXUS61 KBTV 021727
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1227 PM EST WED DEC 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT...BRINGING RAINY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1059 AM EST WEDNESDAY...NO UPDATE TO CRNT FCST EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. SATL PIC SHOWS HIGH LVL CLOUDS ADVECTING FROM SW TO NE
ACRS OUR CWA TODAY...WITH RAIN NOW ACRS SOUTHERN PA. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO SLOWLY LOWER AND THICKEN ACRS OUR CWA THIS AFTN...WITH RAIN
ARRIVING BY TONIGHT. UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW PLENTY OF RAIN ACRS THE
APPALACHIAN MTNS AND SE CONUS...WHICH WL IMPACT OUR REGION WITH A
MODERATE QPF EVENT TONIGHT INTO THURS. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BTWN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACRS OUR FA BY THURS AFTN. 85H TEMPS FROM REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS ARE BTWN +1 AT ALB TO +4C AT BUF SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
40S TO NEAR 50F MOST LOCATIONS. OVERALL FCST IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO
UPDATE IS NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 444 AM EST WEDNESDAY...MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
HOW THEY HANDLE LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL IMPACT NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE OVER LOWER
OHIO VLY THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NNE TO
NEAR KART BY 12Z THURS. LOW THEN TRACKS MORE EASTERLY...MOVG ACRS
NRN TIER OF BTV CWA THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO NRN MAINE BY LATE
IN THE DAY. WITH SUCH AN INLAND TRACK...WE ARE LOOKING AT A RAIN
EVENT.
EXPECT RAIN TO OVERSPREAD FA FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT ROUGHLY BTWN
03Z-06Z. A BRIEF MIX OR SOME ZR- PSBL IN NE VT AT THE ONSET OF
THE PCPN...BUT AS WARMER AIR STREAMS IN AT ALL LEVELS...ANY MIX
WOULD BE SHORT LIVED. MIN TEMPS WILL BE REACHED PRIOR TO 06Z IN
MOST AREAS...WITH STEADY OR RISING TEMPS OVRNGHT AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWS FOR WARMER AIR AND GOOD MSTR INFLUX INTO
RGN. PW'S CLIMB TO AROUND AN INCH EARLY THURS...AND 850 MB TEMPS
APRCH +10 C OVER SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z
THURS.
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THE PERIOD OF STRONG WAA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY WHEN BULK OF RAIN WILL OCCUR. RAIN WILL THEN TAPER
TO SHWRS BY THURS PM. EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM .75 TO
1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SOME LOCALLY HIR AMOUNTS
PSBL. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA
RIVERS. NOT ENOUGH FOR RIVER FLOODING...BUT PLENTY OF PONDING OF
WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS. MAX TEMPS THURS ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S. COOLEST READINGS
SHUD BE IN ST LWR VLY...WITH WARMEST READINGS IN SRN VT.
THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY
WINDS. STRONG LLVL JET OF 50-70 KTS...THOUGH STABILIZING
INFLUENCE OF FALLING PCPN AND CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS ABOVE
INVERSION HEIGHT SHUD LIMIT THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL. EXPECT SOME
GUSTY WNDS (AROUND 35 KTS) ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND
OVER THE HIR ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENS AND ADRNDKS LATER
TONIGHT...WITH MORE WDSPRD BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THURS AS
THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE RGN.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA THURS NITE. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIR TRRN. PTYPE WILL BE RAIN
DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH CAA OVRNGHT...EXPECT SCT RAIN SHWRS
TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHWRS. UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE GRTLKS INTO
FRIDAY. CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GRTLKS MSTR TO
OVRSPRD FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN SOME LAKE EFFECT OR
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHWRS. HIGHEST POPS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUM PSBL IN SRN ST LWR VLY AND OVER ADRNDKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS MEAN FLOW KEEPS
STRONGER SYSTEMS EITHER WELL TO OUR SOUTH OR OFFSHORE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. SOME LAKE EFFECT OR OROGRAPHIC SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CROSS THE REGION...AND ESPECIALLY IN OUR
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT SNOW REGION...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COLD
CANADIAN AIR MASS FINALLY SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COND ACROSS THE CWA WILL REMAIN VFR THRU
03Z THURS AS HIGH CLDS WORK N OVER THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN
TO DROP BY 03Z AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MVS NORTH. MVFR/IFR COND
WILL THEN PERSIST THRU REST OF FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN DEVELOPS.
VSBY WILL DROP TO 3-5SM W/ TEMP DOWN TO 1-2SM AT TIMES IN HEAVIER
RAINFALL/FG. CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN010-030 DURING THIS TIME.
HEAVIST RAIN EXPECTED FROM 08Z-14Z THURS. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. SE GRADIENT WILL INCR OVER THE AREA W/
10-20KTS AND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS POSSIBLE(MSS/SLK WILL SEE WINDS MORE
EASTERLY). EVENTUALLY ALL SITES WILL SEE WIND SHIFT TO MORE WSW
10-20KTS BY 18Z THURS AS SFC LOW MVS N OF THE AREA. POTENTIAL FROM
08Z-12Z TO SEE WIND SHEAR 40-50KTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THU THRU 00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS/LLWS
POSSIBLE.
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS..MAINLY
NRN MTNS/KSLK TERMINAL.
00Z SAT THRU 00Z SUN...VFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR
SNOW...ESP EAST.
00Z SUN THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR THOUGH W/OCCNL MVFR/IFR IN LAKE
SHSN...MAINLY AT THE KSLK TERMINAL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BTV REMAINS WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL SO FAR THIS SEASON. THE
RECORD LATEST DATE IS WITHIN SIGHT.
FOR BURLINGTON...ON AVERAGE THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW HAPPENS
NOVEMBER 6TH. HERE ARE THE 10 LATEST FIRST SNOWS FOR BURLINGTON
GOING BACK TO 1906...ALONG WITH THE SEASONAL TOTAL SNOW THAT
FOLLOWED.
SEASON TOTAL
RANK DATE SNOWFALL (INCHES)
1. 12/7/1937 45.1
2. 12/5/1915 54.4
3. 12/?/2009 XXXX
4. 12/1/1948 40.7
5. 11/30/1918 69.6
11/30/1953 83.6
11/30/1960 51.6
8. 11/28/1913 56.5
9. 11/27/1941 57.7
10. 11/26/1982 80.5
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...JN/NEILES
CLIMATE...BTV
