FXUS62 KTBW 100204
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
904 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009
.UPDATE...MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE TONIGHT PRIMARILY
CENTERED ON INCREASING THE MENTION OF FOG IN COASTAL AREAS AS WELL
AS MAKING SKY COVER HIGHER IN THE SAME AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED UPWARDS AS WELL FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS AS READINGS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S EVERYWHERE WITH DEWPOINTS NEARLY THE
SAME...SO ANY FALL IN THE ABSENCE OF A CHANGING AIRMASS SEEMS UNLIKELY.
THE GENERAL SCENARIO TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...BEGINNING TO LOSE STEAM AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT DWINDLES. A QUICK MOVING IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WILL KICK EAST LATE TONIGHT AND HELP TO CONTINUE THE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WARM AND HUMID AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OVER COOLER GULF WATERS AND THUS COASTAL AND
SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST MOST OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...LINGERING SEA FOG NEAR TAMPA BAY WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO
BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH FROM MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR TERMINALS
FROM SRQ NORTHWARD. EXPECT FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MID MORNING
(AROUND 12Z) BEFORE A FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. FOG SHOULD
BE REPLACED BY SOME SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER
SOUTH...PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT RSW AND FMY BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
A THICK COMPARED TO NORTHERN SITES.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST BY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF
THE WATERS. FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009/
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...LITTLE CHANGES IN THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCENARIO FOR THE LONG TERM. MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN LIFTING A STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA BACK INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN FL ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAK
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL BE ENOUGH FOR LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. 30-50 PERCENT POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE NATURE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT THEN PUSHES BACK SOUTH AND EITHER CLEARS THE STATE OR
DISSIPATES BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...EXCEPT MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 68 68 51 67 / 30 70 20 20
FMY 71 80 58 76 / 10 40 20 20
GIF 69 69 50 67 / 20 70 20 20
SRQ 69 72 55 70 / 20 60 20 20
BKV 65 65 45 64 / 30 70 20 20
SPG 68 68 53 67 / 20 70 20 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS
TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...35/JOHNSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...20/BARRON
