FXUS63 KGLD 051130
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
430 AM MST SAT DEC 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...
200 AM MST SAT DEC 5 2009

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE SHEARING OUT AND SENDING A WAVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW SETS UP SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE WEST. 

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH OR SO. AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REACH
INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST 
NEBRASKA...LOW TO MID 40S EAST IN WESTERN KANSAS. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL POUR INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND
EVEN INTO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S...TEENS TO MAYBE 20 DEGREES MONDAY. THIS IS BASED
ON PARTIAL MIXING OF 850 TEMPS AND 2M/MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA ITS POSSIBLE THAT THESE TEMPS
MAY NEED TO BE TWEAKED A BIT LOWER.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SCATTERED FLURRIES GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A PIECE OF THE GREAT BASIN SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA.
700MB LOW EMERGES OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA BY 18Z SUNDAY
MOVING INTO OMAHA BY 00Z MONDAY. HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
LESS THEN AN INCH SOUTH. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR
EAST/NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE COMING
TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SYSTEM AND BETTER MOISTURE MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA.

NEXT BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY PRODUCING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. PRECIPITATION CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER AS
MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT DEVELOPS WHICH WOULD PREVENT MUCH IF ANY SNOWFALL.
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AN INCH OR TWO...HIGHEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA.

TUESDAY...700MB LOW MOVES FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY INTO ILLINOIS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODEL THAT AXIS OF
HIGHEST PRECIP/SNOWFALL WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE. HAVE UPPED POPS A BIT AND ADDED BLOWING SNOW AS 850
WINDS INCREASE TO SUPPORT GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR SO. STILL A BIT TOO
EARLY GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT EXACT POSITION/TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT SNOW WILL FALL OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. NO CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AT TIME WITH
READINGS IN THE 20S EXPECTED. 

WEDNESDAY...DRY AND CONTINUED COLD. SOME DISCREPANCY AS TO JUST
HOLD IT WILL BE AS ECMWF/850 TEMPS A FEW DEGREES CELSIUS DIFFERENCE.
LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE 20S.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NO CHANGES MADE. 

07
&&

.AVIATION...
428 AM MST SAT DEC 5 2009

FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 08Z WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

JRM
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

$$