FXUS63 KDDC 300800
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
TODAY'S FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY CENTERS AROUND TEMPERATURES.
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXITING TO OUR
SOUTH, FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO DOWN NEAR LUBBOCK,
TX. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
WYOMING. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND THE MORNING
STARTING WITH A STRONG SURFACE INVERSION. SO HOW FAST WILL THE
LOWEST LAYERS WARM UP IS THE QUESTION. HAVE TO SIDE WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM MODEL, WHICH IS VERY IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. OVERALL, DID VERY LITTLE MODIFICATION TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, AS IT SEEMS ON TRACK. FOR TONIGHT, DID LOWER MIN TEMPS A
TAD IN THE WEST, AS THERE WILL BE DRIER AIR FILTERING IN WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
AN UPPER WAVE WILL SKIM US FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY, BRINGING SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH IT. THINK THE INCREASED CLOUDS WILL
HELP TO KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES UP TO TODAY'S LEVELS. THE MAX TEMP
RANGE FRO TUESDAY WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE WEST TO THE MID
50S CENTRAL AND EAST. STILL NO POPS TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT, WITH
LOWER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. THE COLD CORE HIGH WILL
SETTLE IN EVEN MORE TUESDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN A COLDER NIGHT.
THINK THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP TO NEAR 24F AT EHA AND RANGE
TO 32F AT P28.
THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN ABOUT 72
HOURS. UNTIL THEN, THEY ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING
THE UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA, CALIFORNIA EAST THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
THEN FILL IT IN AS THE LOW CURVES NORTHEAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY.
DAYS 3-7...
THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY BUT DIVERGE
GREATLY THEREAFTER. AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST, THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS STILL EXPECTED BY WED/THU
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS IN THE 30S.
THE MODELS SHOW THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND EASTERN CONUS BY LATE WEEK. THERE IS HUGE DISAGREEMENT ON THE
EXTENT AND TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NW CONUS
BY THE WEEKEND. IF UPPER TROUGHING IS SIGNIFICANT, THEN WE COULD SEE
A WEATHER PATTERN FAVORING SHALLOW COLD AIR IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE WARMING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER IF THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR STAYS TO OUR NORTH, THEN FAIRLY MILD AIR COULD
INVADE WESTERN KS. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW A PATTERN CONDUCIVE TO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP THROUGH DAY 10.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 24 HRS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 58 30 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 58 28 53 25 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 58 31 48 25 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 58 30 50 28 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 60 27 54 24 / 0 0 0 0
P28 59 31 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN12/24/24
