FXUS63 KGLD 061753
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1053 AM MST SUN DEC 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...
200 AM MST SUN DEC 6 2009

UPPER WAVE AND 700MB LOW LOCATED ON THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF 120KT
UPPER JET NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TODAY...NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. AREAS
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW WHILE AREAS SOUTH WILL BE LESS. ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
TWO EXPECTED. SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE THROUGH 18Z OR SO BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW AS COLDER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO POUR
INTO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S...PROBABLY EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING.

SHOULD HAVE A LULL IN THE ACTION FOR MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY BUT IT
WILL STILL BE COLD. MID TO UPPER TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A
FEW READINGS AROUND 20 POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH JUST A BIT OF
SUNSHINE. 

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT PREFER THE
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. LIKELY POPS (SNOW) FOR THE
NORTHEAST 2/3 OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA WITH 700 LOW OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPE OF COLORADO. AREAS FROM FLAGLER TO LEOTI AND POINTS WEST MAY
SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SOME SNOW AS NARROW TONGUE OF
WARMER AIR AT 850MB WORKS IN ON SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS MAY CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE SFC LOW REACHES
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALLOWING ARCTIC AIR ON STRONG NORTH WINDS TO
SURGE SOUTHWARD AGAIN. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA HAVE UPPED POPS TO
LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL AS GOOD MOISTURE/DYNAMICS AND LIFT ARE ALL
PRESENT. USED HPC QPF AND A MODEST 15:1 RATIO (MAY BE CLOSER TO
18:1) PRODUCES SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THEN 8 INCHES IN 24 HOURS
FROM DUNDY COUNTY NEBRASKA THROUGH HOXIE AND HILL CITY. IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THAT AREA. JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WATCH AREA
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED WITH LESS THEN 3 FROM WESTERN
KIT CARSON COUNTY THROUGH CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO INTO GREELEY
COUNTY KANSAS. STORM SHOULD MOVE PRETTY QUICK TO THE NORTHEAST AND
BY MIDNIGHT OR SO BE GONE. MAY HAVE SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WE APPROACH THE
EVENT. STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 2O TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...DECREASING WINDS AND CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS FRESH SNOWPACK WILL
PROMOTE IDEAL RADITIONAL COOLING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT BELOW ZERO FOR THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...NO CHANGES MADE. 

07
&&

.AVIATION...
1052 AM MST SUN DEC 6 2009

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB-VRF THROUGHOUT TAF VALID
PERIOD, WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS GENERALLY BETWEEN 18Z-21Z. DURING
THIS TIME, WOULD EXPECT MAINLY LOW MVFR CIGS AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH
IFR VIS WITH -SN WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY AT
KMCK AS THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW MOVES EASTWARD OF KGLD. AFTER 21Z,
EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO COME TO AN END. AFTER 00Z, FLURRIES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING THOUGH NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

50
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY 
     EVENING FOR KSZ002>004-015-016.

NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY 
     EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.

CO...NONE.
&&

$$