FXUS61 KILN 031138
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
638 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS VERY SPOTTY IN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE AS THE SOURCE OF LIFT CONTINUES TO EXIT
THE REGION. CLOUD COVER AND NORTHWEST FLOW USHERING IN COOLER AIR
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS TODAY MAYBE 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHEN THEY
START OUT AT DAYBREAK...GENERALLY REACHING THE LOW 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AND MORESO ON FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING
A CONTINUED DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A SYSTEM WILL
CROSS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL ONLY RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE OH/WV BORDER LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES AWAY ON
SATURDAY...SETTING UP THE BEST NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER OHIO BY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS WERE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NOT FAR OFF OF
GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO AGREEMENT ABOUT A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY.
THE MAIN FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
THEREFORE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE UP INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF THE LOW. AT THIS POINT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT PRECIP WILL START OUT AS RAIN AND THEN
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW NOW WELL NE OF FA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW WILL BRING
NW/W WINDS TO THE TAFS. AREA OF LIGHT PCPN DRIFTING THRU TAFS
ATTM COULD REDUCE VSBYS AT ILN/CMH/LCK FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.
CYCLONIC CAA FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS ACRS THE TAFS TODAY. COULD
SEE A LIGHT SHSN LATER TODAY IN BAND OFF LK MI...BUT CHC IS LOW AT A
TAFS SITE TO REDUCE THE VSBYS SO LEFT IT OUT. AFT 00Z FLOW BEGINS
TO BACK OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK WITH
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE AFT 06Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES
