FXUS64 KSHV 020956
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
356 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
KSHV RADAR SHOWING PRECIP RAPIDLY LIFTING NWD EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TX. REGIONAL
MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP JUST OVER THE NRN HALF
OF THE DFW METROPLEX...WHICH MAY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING. THUS...HAVE KEPT 50 POPS OR BETTER THROUGH 18Z
OVER PARTS OF NE TX. OTHERWISE...WV IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LOW
MAKING GOOD EWD PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. MOST OF THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE
WARNING LATER THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF E TX...A FEW PARISHES IN
EXTREME NW LA...AND A FEW COUNTIES IN SW AR FOR TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE 40S TODAY...GAINING MAYBE A COUPLE
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT HOWEVER...DRY AIR SHOULD BE
INTRUDING...DROPPING DEWPOINTS AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL AS WELL.
THAT BEING SAID...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE N TO
LOW 30S IN THE S. ALSO OF NOTE FOR TODAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE TIGHTENING UP WITH A STRONG SFC LOW PASSING TO OUR SE...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NE. THAT SAID...SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS/GUSTS THIS AFTN WILL INCREASE TO NEAR LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WILL GO AHEAD WITH THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING BY
18Z. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND THE
SFC LOW MOVING AWAY.
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...
WITH ORIGINS IN THE ARCTIC...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING TOWARDS HIGHER POPS/SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
RUNS...GUI POPS FOR DEEP E TX FRI AFTN/EVE ARE NEAR 60-70 IN THE
06Z RUN. HOWEVER...WITH SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS TO COME...WILL
EDGE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE FOR NOW. SUBSEQUENT FCST PACKAGES
MAY EXHIBIT AN UPWARD TREND AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL GUI
REMAINS CONSISTENT.
BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE DISTURBANCE IS WELL E OF THE REGION...
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ONCE AGAIN. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...WITH THE MAIN TROF TO FOLLOW SOMETIME IN THE MID
WEEK TIMEFRAME. KEPT 20 POPS IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL THESE FEATURES
COME MORE INTO FOCUS. /12/
&&
.AVIATION...
A LARGE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUED TO PROGRESS
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE FOUR STATE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT SMALL AREAS
OF NEW SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING B/T I-30 AND I-20 AHEAD OF THE
LOW CENTER. THE UPPER LOW IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL PIVOT
OUT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. VSBY IS GREAT ATTM FOR ALL
BUT KLFK...BUT CIGS AT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS ARE IFR/LIFR. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT AROUND THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO AT LEAST
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE RAINFALL AND COLD FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SFC LOW OUT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL QUICKLY MOVE NNE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
SO...EXPECT LIGHT NE SFC WINDS TO BECOME NW 10-20 KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS FROM WEST TO EAST 12/18Z. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND SKIES
WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 47 32 49 33 43 / 60 10 0 10 20
MLU 48 33 51 32 43 / 70 10 0 10 10
DEQ 47 28 46 29 43 / 90 10 0 10 10
TXK 47 30 48 32 43 / 80 10 0 10 10
ELD 46 31 49 32 42 / 90 10 0 10 10
TYR 47 31 49 34 41 / 50 10 0 10 20
GGG 47 31 49 34 42 / 50 10 0 10 20
LFK 49 34 53 35 39 / 20 10 0 10 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ070.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ070>072.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001-002-010-017.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014.
OK...NONE.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153.
&&
$$
12/24
