FXUS62 KCAE 231704
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1204 PM EST WED DEC 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST THURSDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE OUR AREA CHRISTMAS DAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER AGAIN TODAY. AFTER ANOTHER
COOL START TO THE MORNING TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE MID 50S. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER
IN THE MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST
WILL KEEP LOWS TO NIGHT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE
TONIGHT AND INTENSIFY ON THE DAY THURSDAY. SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
STRONG UPPER SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFF TO THE
WEST THURSDAY MORNING TO LIMIT RAIN. HOWEVER...INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RIDING OVER TOP OF WEAK
SURFACE WEDGE WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 50S OVER MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM.
LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKING WET
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE EAST WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS AS IT ARCS
TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS AT THIS
TIME SINCE MUCH OF THE UPPER ENERGY REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. DRY WEATHER MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND REMAINS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY MARCHES EASTWARD. CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING OVERNIGHT WITH EASTERLY WINDS ALLOWING
FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT DURING THE 09-10Z TIME FRAME. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH 24/10Z...THEN BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 7 KNOTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
