FXUS64 KMRX 260735
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
235 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. LITTLE MOISTURE OR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE AND EXPECT MAINLY A FEW BANDS OF CLOUDS IN RESPONSE
TO THE PASSAGE. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ROTATE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
AND THIS COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS
COMBINED WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ALLOW RAIN TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WITH
THE WARM GROUND AND LIGHT NATURE OF THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL...DO NOT
BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY LEADS TO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. UPPER
RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY SHOULD END BY
AFTERNOON...AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN NEXT SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY.
MODELS NOW INDICATING TWO SYSTEMS WITH A DRY PERIOD IN BETWEEN ON
TUESDAY...BUT GIVEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH. HOWEVER...FOR NOW WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND WILL GO DRY TUESDAY. GFS MOS TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK
REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY FAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 53 34 53 32 62 / 10 10 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 51 33 50 32 58 / 10 10 0 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 50 33 51 31 59 / 10 10 0 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 31 44 27 54 / 10 20 10 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
MJB/LDW
