FXUS65 KLKN 300933
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
133 AM PST MON NOV 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY
BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND. 
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
WILL GET PINCHED TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS. THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR MAX POTENTIAL.
FORTUNATELY...THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY TO OUR EAST AND ALTHOUGH
HIGH TEMPS MAY LOWER A COUPLE OF DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
EASTERN NV...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. 

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN SOME
FORM OF AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY 00Z. MILD RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO HOLD THROUGH FRI 00Z THEN A SHORTWAVE IS DEPICTED BY THE GFS TO
PLUNGE DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHEAST NEVADA.
THE ECMWF AND DGEX MODELS ARE HOLDING ONTO THE RIDGE PATTERN
ANOTHER 24 HRS. THIS IS A FLIP/FLOP FOR THE DGEX SOLUTION FROM A
DAY AGO. MODELS ARE HAVING CONTINUED PROBLEMS RESOLVING EVOLUTION
OF THIS NEXT LOW HOWEVER RESULTS SEEM SIMILAR. THE GFS DIGS A
TROUGH WAY BACK TO NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE SUNDAY AND
CHANNELS SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. THE ECMWF
POSITIONING IS NOT AS FAR SOUTH NOR AS FAR WEST AND ALLOWS A
SHORTWAVE TO PASS SOUTH OF THE MEAN TROUGH BRINGING IN SOME
PACIFIC MOISTURE ABOUT 24 HRS EARLIER...SATURDAY NIGHT. THE DGEX
IS ALSO NOT AS FAR SOUTH NOR WEST AND DROPS A LOW FROM THE NORTH
TO CREATE SOME QPF FOR NORTHERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY...ABOUT 12 HRS
EARLIER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL. SO IT APPEARS WE WILL EVENTUALLY
EXPERIENCE SOME PRECIPITATION FROM THIS PATTERN. WITH ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION LIKELY ON SATURDAY...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH CAUTION THROWN TO INCONSISTENCIES
OF LATE. &&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH 
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED 
TODAY...WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA. A LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE 
TONIGHT AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 
&&

$$

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