FXUS61 KOKX 100303
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1003 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTH...BRISK WESTERLY GRADIENT 
SETS UP...AND DRY AND COLD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM EARLY NEXT WEEK
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE FOG STILL CONTINUES IN PARTS OF THE LOWER HUD VLY...CT AND
NNJ. THE TREND IS IMPROVING IN THIS REGARD AND FEEL ONLY A FEW
MORE HOURS OF FOG EXPECTED UNTIL WESTERLY WINDS TAKE OVER AND
START TO DRY THINGS OUT. 

FIRST PROBLEM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING IS THE CURRENT WIND
ADV. BUFKIT PROFILES... NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE MID ATLC NOT SHOWING ANY WIND GUSTS BEYOND
THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WATER... LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES JUST LOOK TO MARGINAL TO TRANSFER ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO
THE SFC AND GENERATE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS OVERNIGHT. BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AFTER THE
EXPIRATION OF THE CURRENT ADV. WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT ASSESS
MORNING WIND POTENTIAL AND MAKE ANY HEADLINE DECISIONS. 

NEXT CONCERN SHIFTS TO BLACK ICE IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...INTERIOR WESTERN CT AND FAR NORTH NJ. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BE PICKING UP OVERNIGHT... BUT NOT SURE HOW DRY ROADWAYS WILL GET
BEFORE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING IN THOSE AREAS. FEEL THAT THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE AND WILL HIGHLIGHT IN AN SPS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERSISTENT DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND CAA WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY SOMEWHAT BY 
SATURDAY. COLDEST DAY LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY...AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO RISE 
ABOVE FREEZING ANYWHERE IN THE CWA.

BRISK WEST FLOW WILL MAKE IT FEEL CHILLIER. DRY WEATHER THOUGH 
PREVAILS...WITH ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND 
WEST.

AS FOR MAX/MINS...WILL CHOP A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF MOS...ESPECIALLY 
WHERE ANY SNOWPACK EXISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A 1033 HI WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA 12Z SUN. THIS IS THE MOST 
CONFIDENT ASPECT OF THE FCST. 12Z ECMWF/GFS DIFFER THEREAFTER. AT H5 
SW FLOW DEVELOPS WITH WAA DURING THE DAY SUN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO 
PRESENT A WET SOLN WITH LATE SUN INTO SUN NGT THE TIMING. ECMWF IS 
DRY. WITH DRASTIC WARMING AT H85 AND SLY BL WINDS DEVELOPING...PCPN 
WOULD BE SN TO SLEET TO RA COASTS WITH SNOW TO SLEET INTERIOR. POPS 
ARE IN THE LOW CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW. INCREASING CLOUDS BY AFTN CAN 
BE EXPECTED.

DEEP H5 LOW WILL THEN TRACK INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES BY TUE NGT. SRN 
STREAM WILL ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER THE NRN GULF COAST. 
HOW THIS ENTIRE SCENARIO EVOLVES IS IN QUESTION. PREV RUNS HAVE 
HINTED AT A COASTAL...WHILE THE LATEST FEW CYCLES HAVE TRENDED TO A 
MORE BENIGN SOLN. OFFICIAL FCST CARRIES SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS TUE 
THRU EARLY WED WITH A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN IN THE INTERIOR AND MIX/RA 
METRO AND COASTS. THE TIMING/PTYPE/INTENSITY ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE 
IN THE MON-WED PERIOD AS CLEAR TRENDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BASED ON 00Z ANALYSIS...WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE LYING IN A LINE
JUST NORTH OF KSMQ/KEWR/KGON..AND SITTING ON TOP OF KLGA/KTEB.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SW SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS LIFTING. HAVE LIFTED THE FRONT THROUGH KHPN AND KBDR AT
02Z...BUT IT MAY NOT MAKE IT. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH BETWEEN
03Z AND 06Z WITH STRONG W WINDS IN ITS WAKE. OBS UPSTREAM WERE
INDICATING PK WNDS BETWEEN 40-50 KT...BUT THE PRESSURE RISE/FALL
COUPLET IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST...THEREFORE MAY HAVE WINDS
A BIT TOO HIGH. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AS IT MOVES INTO NJ AND
AMEND ACCORDINGLY. WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIC BUT LEFT OF 310
DEG THROUGH 00Z FRI.

OUTLOOK 00Z THU THROUGH MONDAY... 
THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR WITH GUSTY W WINDS. 
FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. 
SUN...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. 
MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AS CAA DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STRENGTHEN AND
TRANSPORT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED ON ALL OF THE WATERS AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. 

THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH REINFORCING SHOTS OF 
CAA. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS 
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. HAVE EXTENDED GALE 
WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY 
BE MARGINAL ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE WATERS ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE 
HOISTED A GALE WATCH DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON SECOND PERIOD EVENT. 
GALES LIKELY ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.

12 TO 18 FT SEAS ONLY SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...BUT WITH STRONG 
OFFSHORE FLOW 8 TO 12 FT SEAS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST 
EAST. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT ON LI SOUND...POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE RACE.

WINDS AND SEAS THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH THE 
CENTER OF THE BUILDING HIGH CLOSER TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. NEXT 
CHANCE OF SCA CONDS MAY BE SUN/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL 
LOW.

WITH STRONG AND PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 
TIDAL DEPARTURES RUNNING 2 1/2 TO 3 1/2 FT BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED 
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF LOW 
WATER PROBLEMS DURING THE TIMES OF LOW TIDE. LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL 
BE ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND SOUND FOR THURS MORNING LOW TIDES.

HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE CSTL WATERS SUN WITH SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN 
SUBSIDING BY SUNRISE. A COMPLEX SCENARIO THEN DEVELOPS IN THE SUN 
NGT THRU WED PERIOD. A WRMFNT WILL IMPACT THE WATERS DURING THE 
FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...WITH A CDFNT FOLLOWING BY WED. BETWEEN 
THESE TWO SYSTEMS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES OVER THE REGION IS 
POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH GALES 
POSSIBLE SHOULD THE LOW DEVELOP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL ALLOW ANY RIVERS/STREAMS TO 
RECEDE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM 6 AM EST THURSDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT 
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-
     335.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MANNING
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE UPATE...MANNING
HYDROLOGY...