FXUS61 KALY 290213
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
915 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER SUNDAY. THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE GUSTY WINDS THAT AFFECTED THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY
HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY WEST. THEY WERE
STILL GUSTING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
SKIES WERE CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE REGION WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EAST OF THE CATSKILLS AND THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. A FLOW OF COOL AND MOIST AIR FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA...OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND OVER THE TERRAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WILL TEND TO KEEP SKIES CLOUDY
OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST...PARTLY
CLOUD OVER THE TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND GREEN MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY
SOUTH OF ALBANY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY OCCUR WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW CLOUD DECK
WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE REGION UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK
...ASIDE FROM THE MID HUDSON REGION OF NY...SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY CT...AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS.
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST
AS OF 9PM...WITH MOST SITES TILL IN THE LOWER 40S. WITH THE
CLOUD DECK PREVENTING RADIATIONAL COOLING...HAVE RAISED
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS UP NORTH...RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW VERY LIGHT ECHOES
ALTHOUGH ONLY KRME IS REPORTING PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND.
HAVE TWEAKED WIND...WIND GUST...DEWPOINT...AND SKY COVER GRIDS
PER LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW AND MID 30S
WITH A FEW UPPER 20S IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE...AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...ON SUNDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WITH A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
WITH SOME WET SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. DID FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM
SINCE ITS HAS BEEN SHOWING BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE
NAM AND ALSO HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE ECMWF.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MID
WEEK RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THERE CONTINUE TO
BE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL
IMPACT P-TYPE. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEMSELVES
OR EACH OTHER BUT DO CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS AND 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF WERE IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE 12Z/GFS AND 12Z/ECMWF ARE. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWS AN ARRAY OF SURFACE LOW POSITIONS. THE
MODELS DO INDICATE A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE DRAWN IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STORM OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PRODUCED STRONG WINDS OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE ALBANY AREA WHERE THE
ORIENTATION OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY CAUSED A FUNNELING EFFECT. A
PEAK GUST OF 46 KNOTS/53 MPH/OCCURRED AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT /KALB/ AT 937 AM TODAY.
WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED...WITH THE WINDS DOWN TO 11 KNOTS AT
KALB...6 KNOTS AT KGFL...AND 4 KNOTS AT KPOU. THEY WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
A STRATUS DECK WITH BASES 2500 TO 4500 FT ABOVE SEA LEVEL COVERED
MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE ALBANY AREA NORTH AND WEST...INCLUDING
KGFL. MEANWHILE SKIES OVER THE MID HUDSON REGION WERE CLEAR. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT KALB AND KGFL...IF BARELY SO...AND
NO FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK AT KALB AND KGFL AROUND 15Z
TOMORROW ALTHOUGH THE PARTIAL CLEARING IS LIKELY TO ONLY LAST A
FEW HOURS...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD MORE CLOUDS INTO THE REGION STARTING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...VFR/MVFR CHC -SHRA
MON...MVFR/IFR. -RA/-SN.
TUE...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.
WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU...MVFR-IFR CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAIN STEM
RIVERS...AND RESERVOIRS WILL RECEDE WITH THE COOL DRY AIR MASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE THRU SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT
THRU MONDAY. TOTAL QPF WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH...WITH UP TO A HALF AN INCH OVER THE ADIRONDACK REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH TOTAL QPF POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN
SOME AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...RCK
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...WASULA
