FXUS64 KSHV 252019
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
219 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FROSTY START WE HAVE MANAGED A NICE WARM UP. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS ARE A BLOWING IN THE PLAINS AND GUSTY OVER OKLAHOMA WITH THE
AIR MASS REINFORCEMENTS ADVERTISED EARLIER THIS WEEK.
WE HAD A 1025 HIGH OVER AUSTIN TX THIS MORNING WITH GOOD DECOUPLING
AND WE DROPPED THROUGH THE DEW POINTS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
SOON TO ARRIVE REINFORCING AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO BE 1026/27 OVER THE
TX COASTAL BEND OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY...SO WE COULD SEE A BROADER
SPREAD OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPS FRIDAY AM. NOT TONIGHT...THE WINDS WILL BE
STRONG INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL HAVE TROUBLE FULLY
DECOUPLING...BUT SHELTERED AREAS MAY BRIEFLY DROP OFF AT DAYBREAK.
FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
NORTHERN TIER AND WILL SAY THAT ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING MAY BE
ISSUED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ON EARLY FRIDAY. ALSO...SKY COVER MAY YET COME INTO PLAY AS WELL...BUT
SO FAR...THE MOISTURE FROM THAT PACIFIC LOW COMING OVER BAJA AND IS
KEEPING JUST SOUTH OF TEXAS.
LITTLE CHANGE ON THE EXTENDED PICTURE WITH NICE WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE RETURN FLOW UNDERWAY. AND TO NOTE ONCE AGAIN...THE
GULF IS REALLY GOING TO SCOURED WITH THIS FRONT TONIGHT...SO
RETURN FLOW WILL BE MODIFIED FOR SATURDAY AND THEN THICKENING UP
DEW POINTS CAN BE EXPECTED RIGHT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM INTO SUNDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF IS THE BEST APPROACH WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BIG PICTURE FOR NOW WITH A GOOD SOAKING RAIN
TO WRAP UP WHAT HAS BEEN A VERY DRY NOVEMBER. RAINFALL MAY STILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES BUT STILL THE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BE MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. /24/
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTH TAF SITES...TXK AND
ELD...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE FOUR STATE AREA TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY INCREASE TONIGHT UP TO 8 TO 10 KNOTS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 27/00Z. /03/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 39 61 33 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 10
MLU 38 58 33 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 10
DEQ 29 58 25 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 10
TXK 38 57 34 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 10
ELD 35 58 30 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 10
TYR 39 62 37 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 10
GGG 37 61 35 66 45 / 0 0 0 0 10
LFK 38 63 34 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.
LA...NONE.
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/03
