FXUS62 KTAE 061850
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
150 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO PASS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONLY IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRANSLATE FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION MONDAY NIGHT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SLIDES
EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MAKING WAY FOR THIS SYSTEM...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND SWING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WITH MODELS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PW'S INCREASING TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES BY TUESDAY
EVENING. WILL TREND POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE/LIKELY CATEGORY FOR
TUESDAY. AFTER A CHILLY WEEKEND...THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED H5/H2 TROUGH OVER WRN
CONUS AND A CORRESPONDING BROAD RIDGE OVER ERN CONUS. THE TROUGH
FINALLY SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND IT WILL BROADEN AND MOVE EWD
THRU FRI BEFORE LIFTING NEWD WITH CONUS FLOW BECOMING ESSENTIALLY
ZONAL. HOWEVER...SRN STREAM REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY ACTIVE WITH SW FLOW
THRU MUCH OF EXTENDED TO SEND ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DOWNSTREAM TO GENERATE SURFACE WAVES LIFTING STALLED FRONT BACK
NORTH AND PUSHING COLD FRONTS INTO SE REGION IN A REPEAT OF RECENT
EL NINO PATTERN.
INITIAL STALLED WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD AS LOW MOVES ACROSS BOUNDARY
TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...
FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF TSTMS BEFORE STALLING ACROSS S/CNTRL
GULF/FL LATE THURS. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SE CONUS
WED AND THEN PASSES BY N OF THE AREA THURS-FRI INITIALLY YIELDING A
MODESTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS AND OFFSHORE FLOW...BUT AS HIGH
MOVES E OF CWA...AHEAD OF NEXT UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...FLOW
BECOMES ONSHORE THURS/FRI. AT THIS TIME...YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR NEAR THE TEXAS COAST ALONG
STALLED GULF BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY AND ADVANCING NEWD ACROSS CWA EARLY
SAT REACHING THE MID-ATLC COAST LATER ON SAT. AHEAD OF THIS STALLED
FRONT LIFTS NWD AS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES LATE
THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT APPROACHING NW CWA BY SAT. AGAIN
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS N OF CWA. OUTSIDE OF SOME MINOR TIMING
ISSUES...THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD.
WITH LOW/WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS LOCAL REGION TO COMMENCE EXTENDED
PERIOD...SHARP S-N 30-60 PCT POP GRADIENT TUES NIGHT AND 20-40 N-S
GRADIENT ON WED AND 20-30 PCT POPS WED NIGHT. IN WAKE OF FRONT/
LOW...NIL POPS INTO FRI AFTN...THEN WDLY SCT-LO SCT LATE FRI
INCREASING TO LO-MID SCT ON SAT WITH SECOND LOW/FRONT. AS FAR AS
TEMPS...PERIOD BEGINS WITH DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW STREAMING OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF LIFTING WARM FRONT AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MIN TEMPS TUES NIGHT 15-18 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO (CLIMO IS LOW 40S)
WITH DROP TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WED NIGHT. THEN WITH COOL DRY
AIRMASS BUILDING IN...MIN TEMPS AROUND CLIMO THURS NIGHT BEFORE
INCHING UP TO AROUND 8 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF
NEXT WX SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS WED IN MID 70S OR WELL ABOVE CLIMO (CLIMO
IN MID 60S). MAX TEMPS DROP TO AROUND CLIMO THURS WITH CLOUDS AHEAD
OF WARM FRONT BEFORE INCHING UP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO IN
WARM SECTOR ON SAT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SLIDES EAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITH THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. NEAR TO
AROUND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE MARINE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 18Z MON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS BY MORNING AT INLAND LOCATIONS. PLENTY OF
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...BUT VFR EXPECTED AFTER
ABOUT 14Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE TO THE WEST. RAIN IS THEN
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. NO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 40 67 51 69 62/ 00 00 10 50 30
PANAMA CITY 44 67 56 70 66/ 00 10 10 60 40
DOTHAN 40 63 49 65 61/ 00 10 10 70 50
ALBANY 39 65 46 66 59/ 00 00 10 70 50
VALDOSTA 42 69 49 69 60/ 00 00 10 50 40
CROSS CITY 44 73 52 75 62/ 00 00 10 40 30
APALACHICOLA 44 67 56 69 64/ 00 00 10 50 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...BARRY
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
LONG TERM...BLOCK
