FXUS62 KJAX 261413
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
913 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2009

...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...

.UPDATE...COLDER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUE TO FILTER OVER THE AREA ON 
NW FLOW AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE JAX CWA FROM AN 
ELONGATED CENTER OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW 
CONTINUES TO STEER ABUNDANT CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA...AND EXPECT THIS 
TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR SKIES 
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT MAY NEED TO 
EXPAND NORTHWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA AS LONG WAVE TROUGH 
AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET MOISTURE SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD FROM MEXICO 
TO DOWNSTREAM OF THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. 

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED. 

&&

.MARINE...BASED ON OBS DECIDED TO DROP THE MARGINAL SCA AND REPLACE 
IT WITH A SCEC FOR NW WINDS 15-20KTS AND COMBINED SEAS NEAR 6 FT FOR 
OUR OFFSHORE LEGS TODAY. DESPITE OFFSHORE FLOW...SEAS ARE ELEVATED 
DUE TO LINGERING EASTERLY SWELL OF 3-5 FT (10 SECOND PERIODS). 

$$

.FIRE WEATHER...MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR 
INLAND FLORIDA ZONES TODAY. UPDATED DEW PTS AND COMBINED BOSTON 
TECHNIQUE MIXING TOOLS TO YIELD DEW PTS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS 
THESE ZONES THIS AFTN. DESPITE LOWER DEW PTS...DURATIONS OF 
SUB-CRITICAL RHS RESULTED IN EXACTLY 4 HR DURATIONS. GIVEN ABUNDANT 
CIRRUS ALOFT AND RECENT RAINFALL...WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS 
SHIFTS THINKING AND NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG FOR TODAY. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  56  34  58  34 /   0  10  10  10 
SSI  57  39  58  40 /   0  10  10  10 
JAX  59  37  60  37 /   0  10  20  10 
SGJ  59  41  60  43 /   0  10  20  20 
GNV  59  36  59  38 /   0  10  20  20 
OCF  61  37  58  41 /   0  10  30  20 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/KEEGAN