FXUS61 KGYX 040750
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
250 AM EST FRI DEC 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AN OCEAN STORM WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND COULD BRUSH THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TDA. WITH A
BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT THERE WILL BE A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES AT THE
SFC APPROACHING LATE IN THE DAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME PARTIAL
CLOUDINESS WITH IT...BUT NO PRPC. WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT THE CD AIR
WELL TO OUR W WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SURGE E...THUS A MILDER THAN
NORMAL DAY...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WARM AS THE RECORD SETTING TEMPS ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY USED GFS40 WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE WEAK SFC TROF OF LOW PRES MOVES THRU AS THE WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRES REFORMS OVER THE REGION. SOME CLOUDINESS AROUND BUT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. AGAIN SW FLOW ALOFT KEEPS CD AIR TO THE W FROM PUSHING
TO THE E...SO TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. GENERALLY USED GFS40 WITH
A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. EVOLVING PATTERN RESULTS IN A DEEP TROUGH VICINITY
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A CLOSED LOW SITUATED JUST WEST OF
HUDSON BAY. THE RESULTING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
ARCTIC AIR TO SEEP SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST AND PLAINS AND
GIVE RISE TO A MAJOR DISTURBANCE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA BY MID WEEK WITH A TRACK THAT FAVORS A WINTRY
MIX TO RAIN. THE LATEST NAM OPERATIONAL RUN APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER IN REGARDS TO THE OCEAN STORM THAT IS PROGGED TO TRACK
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
PREFERRED GFS/ECMWF AS WELL AS SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT
KEEPING THE BULK OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE AT THIS
POINT AND HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRES SLIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...INTERRUPTED BY A WEAK AND DISORGANIZED SFC TROF
OF LOW PRES. THIS WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS...BUT NO PRCP TO THE
REGION. STILL SHOULD BE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THRU TNGT.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF BLO
SCA LEVELS THOUGH A FEW GUSTS STILL PEAKING AROUND THE 25 KT
THRESHOLD FOR AN SCA. WINDS AND GUSTS SHOULD CONT TO DIMINISH AS
WEAK HIGH PRES SLIDES INTO THE REGION TDA AND TNGT...BRIEFLY
INTERRUPTED BY A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRES. SEAS STILL RUNNING WELL
ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND LIKELY RUNNING CLOSER TO THE
SCA 5 FT THRESHOLD IN THE BAYS. WILL LWR THE SCA TO JUST AN SCA
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...FOR THE BAYS THRU THIS MORNING AND FOR THE
OUTER WATERS THRU THE ENTIRE DAY. SEAS CONT TO DROP THRU THE DAY
AND TNGT AS WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW DOMINATES THRU THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
LONG TERM...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH MINIMAL SCA CRIT SAT NIGHT
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE OFFSHORE LOW WELL TO THE SE AND HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W....OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE PREDICTED PWM TIDE IS 11.2 FEET AT 1154 AM TODAY. WITH
OFFSHORE WINDS THERE SHOULDN'T BE ANY SURGE. IN FACT GFS MODEL
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A NEGATIVE IMPACT. THIS GUIDANCE
USUALLY TO LOW AND DOESN'T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION AS
IT IS ALREADY MISSING THE FCST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. HIGH TIDE
OVERNIGHT TOPPED OUT 0.4 FT ABOVE PREDICTED WHILE GFS SAID ZERO OR
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SURGE. EXPECT SLIGHT TO NO SURGE WITH HIGH TIDE
TDA WHICH IS STILL GOING ABOVE THE GFS NEGATIVE GUIDANCE. THUS
TIDE SHOULD STAY BLO THE 12 FT FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER, STILL SEEING
SEAS AS HIGH AS 10 FT...IN PART DUE TO A SWELL...AT THIS TIME.
SEAS SHOULD DROP THRU THE DAY BUT MIGHT STILL CREATE SOME VERY
MINOR SPLASH OVER DURING HIGH TIDE. NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY
HEADLINES THOUGH WILL MENTION IN THE HWO PRODUCT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
PWM SET A RECORD HIGH AND WARMEST AVERAGE TEMP FOR THURSDAY. ALSO,
THURSDAY WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS ON RECORD IN PORTLAND IN
DECEMBER. SEE PWMRERPWM FOR DETAILS. CON SET A RECORD HIGH FOR
THURSDAY. SEE PWMRERCON FOR DETAILS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EST
THIS MORNING FOR ANZ151-153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
