FXUS63 KPAH 080928
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
328 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
INCOMING RAIN EARLY TODAY FROM THE SW...LOOKING AT
SOUNDINGS...MIGHT POSSIBLY INCLUDE A SMALL CHC OF SLEET IN OUR
WRN/NWRN COUNTIES. BY 14-15Z...RAIN OVERSPREADING ALL OF FA...AND
SOUNDINGS LOOK WARM ENOUGH EVERYWHERE TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF
SLEET. 

CATEGORICAL POP EVENT INCLUDES SMALL CHC OF ELEVATED THUNDER THIS
PM/EARLY EVENING HOURS IN STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FIELD. HOWEVER
BELIEVE FOR MOST PART...ANY THUNDER WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH...BUT FOR
COLLABORATIVE PURPOSE AND ESP CONSIDERING SWODY1 SEE TEXT FOR
LOWER OH VALLEY...WILL INCLUDE ITS MENTION DURING PM/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. 

STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH AND ENDS MOST PCPN BY MIDNIGHT.
POWERFUL WINDS COMING DOWN ITS BACKSIDE IN TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY FOR WED. MIXED GFS WINDS THRU
BUFKIT DOWN TO SURFACE AND HAVE 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED W/GUSTS TO 45
MPH...PARTICULARLY WED AM. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN THEIR
INCREASE AFT 06Z AND REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 12Z. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LESS THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 00Z THU BUT WONT ACTUALLY
RELAX IN EARNEST TIL THU. 

THE LIFT OUT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM ALSO BLASTS VERY
COLD AIR INTO THE AREA FOR WED NIGHT-FRI. THIS AIRMASS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO MODERATE FRI-FRI NIGHT JUST AS THE NEXT WX SYSTEM STARTS
TO FLIRT W/THE AREA...LEADING TO SMALL CHANCES OF EITHER/OR TYPE
PCPN. THIS APPEARS ADEQUATELY REFLECTED IN INHERITED PACKAGE AND
GIVEN ITS DAY 4 AND BEYOND...WONT BE ALTERING ANYTHING AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...
RAPID MOISTURE RETURN UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...IN ADVANCE
OF INVERTED TROUGH...WILL COMPLICATE THINGS ONCE PRECIPITATION
RETURNS TO THE TAF SITES BEFORE DAYBREAK AT KCGI/KPAH...AND CLOSER
TO 14Z AT KEVV/KOWB. ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS...CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN AT IFR/LIFR LEVELS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AT KCGI/KPAH...AND
AT LOW MVFR CEILINGS AT KEVV/KOWB. DESPITE LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS...VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE RAIN WILL DROP TO IFR LEVELS AT
KCGI/KPAH...AND MVFR LEVELS AT KEVV/KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BALLARD-
     CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-
     FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-
     MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-
     WEBSTER.

MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BOLLINGER-
     BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY 
     MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ALEXANDER-
     EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-
     WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GIBSON-PIKE-
     POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

$$