FXUS64 KFWD 012122
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
322 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT WITH
PERIODS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
NORTH TEXAS. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX WITH
LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO WEATHERFORD TO
GOLDTHWAITE. EAST OF THIS LINE BUT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...SOME
SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE BUT TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
LAYER BELOW 900 MB/3000 FT WILL PREVENT MOST OF THE SNOW FROM
REACHING THE GROUND. IN THE WEST WHERE SNOW IS POSSIBLE...A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS BUT MOST SNOW
WILL MELT ONCE HITTING THE GROUND.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL ARRIVE IN NORTH TEXAS
TOMORROW WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT. THIS COLD AIR WILL
KEEP NORTH TEXAS TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT BEARS WATCHING WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WHEN A
BROAD TROUGH BRINGS EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR TO NORTH TEXAS AND
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE
BASE OF THIS LARGE TROUGH AND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY. AS
DEEP COLD AIR SINKS INTO NORTH TEXAS...THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO ALSO DEVELOP. ANALYSES OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW. WHILE THE ICE GROWTH ZONE IS WELL SATURATED ON THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DUE TO
LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S FRONT. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THEIR OUTPUT OF QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
WILL MAINTAIN THE SAME GENERAL AREA OF SNOW ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH. HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF SNOW FLURRIES ELSEWHERE IN
NORTH TEXAS AS THE STRENGTH OF DYNAMICAL FORCING WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW
PRODUCTION.
ZONAL FLOW RETURNS ACROSS THE COUNTRY BEHIND FRIDAY/S TROUGH AND A
STEADY WARM UP IS EXPECTED BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. BY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
82/JLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 41 48 35 46 31 / 100 40 5 5 10
WACO, TX 40 49 34 48 33 / 100 30 5 5 10
PARIS, TX 42 46 30 46 30 / 100 60 10 5 10
DENTON, TX 38 48 31 47 30 / 100 40 5 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 40 48 31 46 31 / 100 50 5 5 10
DALLAS, TX 41 49 35 46 31 / 100 40 5 5 10
TERRELL, TX 40 49 33 49 31 / 100 40 5 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 42 50 34 50 32 / 100 40 5 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 39 51 34 49 32 / 90 20 5 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
69/82
