FXUS64 KLZK 251203
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
603 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE MID WEST TODAY. SNOW WILL
COME TO AN END IN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG GUSTING TO 30KTS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CLOUDS IN WEST ARKANSAS. CENTRAL AND SOUTH TAF SITES WILL
CLEAR OUT BEFORE 18Z. MAINLY MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD SNOW CONCERNS
WITH EITHER WINTER STORM WARNING OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ALSO
STRONG WINDS WITH POSSIBLE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. THEN OVERALL TEMP
FORECAST. FLOODING CONCERN FOR THOSE AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
FLOODED AND RIVER RISES.
SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED TO NORTH CENTRAL MO...WITH STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BACK TO AR WHERE WIND GUSTS ARE REACHING SPEEDS IN THE 20S
TO NEAR 30 MPH AT TIMES. PRECIP AREA ROTATING AROUND THE SURFACE
LOW...AS WELL AS DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER
LOW...OVER SOUTHERN MO...BRINGING SOME FLURRIES...LIGHT SN0W AND
OCCASIONAL MODERATE SNOW...TO PARTS OF AR. MOST SNOW SEEN OVER
NORTHWEST... NORTH AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AR. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS...A FEW INCHES...SEEN OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHWEST AR. PRECIP PATTERN IS PULLING NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER
LOW. LOW CLOUD COVER WELL BACK TO EAST OK. HAVE SEEN TEMPS
LOWERING QUICKLY OVER WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WITH TEMPS AT LIT
AT 41 AT 11 PM...NOW AT 28 AT 230 AM. PLENTY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
WITH THIS LOW.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WILL LOWER WINTER STORM WARNING TO ADVISORY AND EXTEND TO 8 AM
OVER NW AR...WHILE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO 8 AM...AND ADD A
FEW NE COUNTIES. ALSO WILL KEEP LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH EXPECTED
WINDS SPEEDS. CLOUD FORECAST TOUGH WITH SOME THINNING
EXPECTED...BUT STRATUS SHIELD BACK TO EASTERN OK. IT IS SHOWING
SOME LIFTING TO THE NE...WITH WILL ONLY GRADUALLY THIN THIS
AFTERNOON. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTION CONTINUES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER AREA...SO HAVE NOT CLEAR SKIES... ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH TO
NORTH CENTRAL AREAS. MAV TEMPS ARE USELESS COMING IN AT 10 DEGREES
TOO WARM TO START...SO USED CURRENT TRENDS AND ANALYSIS. TONIGHT
ALL PRECIP ENDS AND THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVE FARTHER
AWAY FROM AR. WINDS WILL LOWER BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY BY
EVENING. THOUGH STRATUS CLOUDS WILL HOLD OVER NORTHERN AR.
SATURDAY...STILL COLD BUT SOME SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN OVER SOUTHERN
TO CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH. ON SUNDAY...A
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE GULF COAST...BUT IMPACT FOR AR
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION WITH
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY AND THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTS
OUT OF THE PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE INCREASING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH. A SHORT WAVE AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY...
SPREADING RAIN INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN OR SNOW. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL END
BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
ARKANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 34 25 36 26 / 20 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 42 28 47 29 / 10 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 28 21 31 21 / 20 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 38 26 41 28 / 10 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 38 26 40 28 / 20 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 41 29 47 29 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 38 25 40 26 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 28 22 31 21 / 30 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 35 26 37 27 / 20 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 39 28 44 29 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 35 23 37 25 / 20 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 36 26 38 28 / 20 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 38 28 42 29 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-
NEWTON-PERRY-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
