FXUS63 KPAH 060926
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
326 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...
STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT...ALL MODELS SUGGEST A LIGHT QPF (FEW
HUNDREDTHS) EVENT SO THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PTYPE. THE NAM
IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN PREFERRED...BOTH
OF THESE SUGGESTING A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS.
EITHER WAY THOUGH YOU HAVE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AND SOUNDING DATA
SUPPORTING A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW IN OUR NRN 1/2 OF THE REGION. A
CLOSER INSPECTION OF THE SOUNDING DATA THOUGH REVEALS LITTLE ICE
NUCLEATION BEYOND -5C...SO SNOWFALL MAY BE LIGHT OR FLURRIES. DRY
LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE DOWN AND WET BULBING MIGHT
EVEN PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SLEET BEFORE/DURING THE CHANGE-OVER...SO
WE'VE INCLUDED ITS CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH AND KEPT THE BASIC
EITHER/OR RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALL MODELS NOW TIMING IT OUT
OF THE AREA BY 12Z MON SO WE'LL ELIMINATE ANY MON AM MENTION AS
WELL. MINIMAL EVENT FROM TRACE AMOUNTS TO FEW HUNDREDTHS SHOULD
OFFER LITTLE IMPACT REGARDLESS OF PTYPE.

NEXT EVENT AFTER THAT STILL LOOKS TO BE TUE-WED AND MODELS ARE
WARMING IF ANYTHING/MAINTAINING ALL RAIN EVENT WITH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS EXPECTED. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED EXCEPT MINOR
MASSAGING AND BEYOND DAYS 4-5 MADE NO CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... 
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THIS LOW... 
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN TODAY 
INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE 
PERIOD...POSSIBLY TEETERING ON MVFR LATE TONIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION 
LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...PROBABLY SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. 
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 
KNOTS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$