FXUS61 KBGM 160537
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1237 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AS COLD AIR MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES. BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO POUR SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST
PA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DOWNWARD MOTION BEGINS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL WAVE AFTER ABOUT 3 AM...BUT NW TRAJECTORY
LAKE EFFECT PLUMES WILL HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED BY THEN AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR -15C. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO FRESHEN UP THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST TO LINGER PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS A LITTLE LONGER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA...WITH MORE
CONCENTRATED LAKE ACTIVITY OCCURRING LATER. A GENERAL 1-3 INCHES
IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSTATE NY WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OVER NEPA.
HAVE ALREADY HAD 2 INCHES HERE ON THE HILL AT KBGM...BUT LIKELY A
BIT LESS DOWN IN THE POPULATED VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MULTI-BANDS FROM A 310-320 DEGREE FETCH WILL SHIFT NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES 280-290 BY AFTERNOON. THE INVERSION
WILL BE AROUND 800 MB WITH A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND ABOUT
100 MB OF SNOW GROWTH. THIS PATTERN WILL FOCUS THE MOST PERSISTENT
SNOW BANDS OVER NORTHERN ONONDAGA... NORTHERN MADISON... AND
WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING... WHERE AN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW.
A TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BANDS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTING SOUTH. MULTI-
BANDS CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NY STATE.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FROM SYR DOWN TO BGM INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN... LOWERING THE INVERSION
LEVEL TO AROUND 900 MB AND EFFECTIVELY ENDING MUCH CHANCE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IS EVIDENT IN TODAY'S MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL THEREFORE STICK CLOSE TO THE CURRENT HPC
GUIDANCE. WITH A BROAD TROF EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN US...THIS SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A FAIRLY COLD TIME.
SEVERAL SOLUTIONS HAVE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST TAKES THE SYSTEM WELL
OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES THAT SUGGEST
RIDGING IN THE MARITIMES AND WRN ATLANTIC WILL BE STRONGER THAN
CURRENT PROGS...AND THAT A TRACK MAY BE CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST. FOR
THAT...I WILL NUDGE UP POPS FROM SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS A HEDGE BET ON THIS SCENARIO.
BEYOND THAT...GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND
CHANCES FOR LAKE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVR UPSTATE NY AND NEPA OVRNGT. VFR
ACTIVITY EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS WITH OCNL MVFR AT LOWER
ELEVATION SITES (RME/SYR/ELM) AS SNOW SQUALLS MV THRU. EXPECT OCNL
IFR RESTRICTIONS AT ITH/BGM/AVP THRU 10Z. LK EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED
AT SYR/RME MVG IN BTWN 12Z-15Z WITH PREDOMINANT MVFR. WHERE LK
BAND SETS UP...IFR WILL BE LKLY BUT TOO TOUGH TO PINPOINT AT THIS
TIME. RMNDR OF TERMINALS LKLY TO VFR WITH EXCEPTION OF ITH WHERE
NW FLOW OFF OF CAYUGA LK WILL KEEP CONDS AT MVFR.
WINDS W-NW FM 10-15KTS...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING BTWN 20-25KTS.
.OUTLOOK...
LATE WED NGT THROUGH THUR AFTN...AREAS OF IFR/MVFR FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY KSYR/ITH/BGM. GENERALLY MVFR/VFR
REST OF TERMINALS.
THUR NGT THROUGH SAT...GENERALLY VFR.
SUN...POSSIBLE MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL NY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-018-036-037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...PVN
