FXUS62 KJAX 051839
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
139 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2009
.SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS LIFTING NE AND BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH IS FLATTENING. DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS PUSHED OVER THE AREA
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS ARE INCREASING.
RAIN HAS ENDED OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE PORTION AND OVER THE FL
COASTAL WATERS. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTN THEN
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TN VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE A COOL NLY FLOW ACRS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. HAVE
GONE WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE DUE TO FCSTS THAT ARE
OFTEN TOO LOW. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID
30S WITH AREAS OF FROST INLAND. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT LIGHT WINDS AND RETURN OF CIRRUS LATE NIGHT WILL
PREVENT TEMPS BELOW FREEZING FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME OR EVEN A
WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT.
A BREEZY NELY FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ON SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL AMPLIFY OFFSHORE AND SINCE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH PRECIP
WILL OCCUR...WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS AND SILENT POPS FOR
LAND. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TO NEAR CLIMO OR ABOVE EARLY IN
THE WEEK.
.LONG TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
N TUESDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPS WEDNESDAY AS FLOW
SHIFTS TO SLY AND SWLY. A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE OF TSTMS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH WED EVE. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY N OF THE AREA
THURS/FRI ALLOWING FOR ONSHORE FLOW...THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY ABATING ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPO CONDITIONS AT CRG AND GNV...OTHERWISE VFR BECOMING THE
DOMINANT CATEGORY. WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS..EXPECT REMAINDER
OF IFR CONDITIONS TO LIFT ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AT BUOY 41012 ARE RIGHT WITHIN LOW RANGE SCA
CATEGORY...MATCHING ONGOING FORECAST NICELY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM IN KEEPING SCA FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NAM12 KEEPS WINDS ELEVATED SIGHTLY LONGER THAN
THE GFS AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BASED ON GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME OVER THE WATERS. MODELS SHOW WINDS BECOMING RELATIVELY
LIGHT THOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES
NOTES. NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP WELL WEST OF THE AREA LATE
TUE...BUT WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA MAY ALLOW FOR A
RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS BY WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 33 57 42 68 / 0 0 10 10
SSI 41 57 50 67 / 0 0 10 10
JAX 35 60 49 71 / 0 0 10 10
SGJ 43 62 55 71 / 0 0 10 10
GNV 34 62 50 73 / 0 0 10 10
OCF 35 64 52 74 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
TRABERT/DEESE/PRESNALL
