FXUS65 KPUB 251203
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
503 AM MST WED NOV 25 2009
.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
...QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO DELIVER GLANCING BLOW TODAY...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT ARE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AT THIS HOUR.
MAIN IMPACTS OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCLUDE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY SOME SPOTTY EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUDS. 11-3.9 IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO TRYING TO SCOOT SOUTHWARD AT THIS TIME. THE SOUTHEAST
COLORADO PLAINS COULD GET CLIPPED BY THESE BRIEFLY EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
FOR TONIGHT...MORE QUIET WEATHER ON TAP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. LW
.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER
RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION THRU FRI...PRODUCING UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN INCREASING MAX TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES BOTH DAYS...NO CHANGES MADE.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NAM...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE
SURPRISINGLY AGREEABLE ON THE LONG TERM SOLUTION...WHICH IS VERY
SIMILAR TO FORECAST TREND THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST FRI NIGHT STRENGTHENS AND SPANS
FROM CANADA AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BACK DOWN INTO SOUTHERN
CA...WITH TWO DEFINED AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. ONE LOW CENTER DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHERN CA SAT MORNING...WHILE THE NORTHERN LOW SLOWLY DROPS
DOWN OUT OF CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES TO THE
EAST...AND THE SOUTHERN LOW WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE WEATHER
MAKER FOR THE CWA TRACKS ACROSS AZ AND NM ON SUN...THEN MOVES ACROSS
TX ON MON.
THEREFORE...THE ONSET OF PCPN SEEMS TO BE SAT MORNING ALONG THE
CONTDVD...THEN SPREADS EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THRU THE AFTN. A
GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN ALL AREAS ON SUN...THEN COMING TO AN END ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
MON MORNING. AS THE TROUGH EXITS...COLDER N FLOW SETTLES IN FOR MON
AND TUE. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO DROP DOWN THE
EASTERN PLAINS BY MIDDAY SAT...SO ADJUSTED GRIDS TO SHOW COLDER
TEMPS BEGINNING SAT AND LASTING THRU TUE...AS WELL AS INCREASED POPS
FOR THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. PAINTED NIL POPS STARTING MON...BUT
THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE AGAIN IF MODELS START HINTING AT A
SLOWDOWN OF THIS SYSTEM. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED ALL SITES. HOWEVER...SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BRIEFLY EARLY THIS MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES BY. LW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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