FXUS63 KGRB 302041
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
241 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
SYSTEM RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS 
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. KDLH
RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW NOW WORKING INTO FAR 
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT SNOW WAS SPREADING 
SOUTHEAST AND WAS HEADING TOWARDS VILAS AND ONEIDA COUNTIES.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS BAND...ONLY A 
FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WERE NOTED ON RADAR. WILL HAVE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER PRECIPITATION
OFF QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. 

WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IN DOOR COUNTY WHERE WINDS OFF THE BAY
SHOULD MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A MILD 
DAY TO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER. HIGHS SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 40S SOUTH.
FOLLOWED THE SREF SINCE IT HAS BEEN DOING WELL OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERN
IS LAKE-EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR VILAS COUNTY DURING THE MIDDLE
TO LATE PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL PULL
A COLD FRONT THROUGH WI ON TUES NGT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS MOISTURE
STARVED...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SATURATION CLOSE TO THE UPPER MICH
BORDER TO PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

ON WEDS/WEDS NGT...MODELS ARE BATTLING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
PHASING OF THE LARGE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE STG SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROF LIFTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS POTENTIAL WAS NOTED BY SOME OF OUR
FORECASTERS LATE IN THE LAST WORK WEEK. THE NAM IS THE MOST
PRONOUNCED WITH THE PHASING...AND DEVELOPS A SFC LOW THAT TRACKS
NNE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN AND PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT PCPN OVER THE
SE THIRD OF WI. THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH HAVE BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT...CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND TAKE THE SFC LOW MUCH FARTHER EAST.
WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FOR NOW...BUT DID HEDGE POPS UP A
LITTLE BIT IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON WEDS NGT/THU TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE SHOWING TWO SEPARATE CLUSTERS OF SFC LOWS POSITIONS...WITH ONE
CLUSTER CENTERED FARTHER EAST NEAR LK HURON BY 12Z/THU.

LK-EFFECT SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP ON WEDS AFTERNOON AS LLVL WINDS 
VEER NORTH AND H8 TEMPS DROP TO -10 TO -12 OVER WSTRN LK SUP.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR FOR VILAS COUNTY ON WEDS NGT
AND THURS...WITH FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES...LK-H8 DELTA-T'S AROUND
20 C AND ENHANCEMENT FROM THE INCOMING UPPER LOW. ALTHOUGH IT'S A
BIT EARLY TO SORT OUT ALL OF THE DETAILS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
COULD BE A HEADLINE EVENT FOR VILAS COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS
ON THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS FROM TUES NGT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS PREVIOUS FCSTS HAD TRENDS WELL COVERED...WITH TEMPS
STEADILY FALLING TOWARD MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY.

CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW AND ADDITIONAL SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE FA
FROM THU NGT THROUGH FRI NGT. THE BEST CHCS WILL OCCUR IN THE LK
SUPERIOR SNOW BELT...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS LIKELY OVER VILAS
COUNTY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WX TO GRB CWA
LATER IN THE WEEKEND...WITH A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED S/W TROF
PERHAPS BRINGING ANOTHER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY
DECEMBER...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 20S
TO LOWER 30S. STAYED CLOSE TO MEN (GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN) AND HPC
GUIDANCE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...A BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS BAND...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
ARE EXPECTED. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD RAPIDLY EXIT THE AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 02Z. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT DUE TO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KRHI.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE 
WEST NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THE WRF IS
STRONGER WITH WINDS OF 40 KNOTS AROUND 925MB. PER DISCUSSION 
WITH KMQT...WILL OPT TO KEEP A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
INSTEAD OF UPGRADING TO A GALE WARNING.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
ECKBERG/KIECKBUSCH