FXUS64 KSHV 031003
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
403 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION THIS MORNING PROVIDING AN INFLUX OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
AND DRIER AIR. FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE THROUGH 8 AM FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. FURTHER
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING AS FAR SOUTH AS NACOGDOCHES TEXAS.
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF WILL REINFORCE COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS...COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...WILL
PROVIDE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR LIGHT SNOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB ABOVE
THE THRESHOLD FOR SNOW FORMATION. HOWEVER...ENHANCED CHANCES FOR
SNOW DEVELOPMENT RETURN ON FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FROM EL DORADO TO JENA. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH AND HAZARDOUS IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S AREAWIDE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
PERIOD. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY BRINGING A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
RAIN DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION. /05/
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUDS LIE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CORNER OF CWA...OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. OTHERWISE...CIRRUS RESIDES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH A NICE FULL MOON LUNAR HALO. WINDS AT FL350 WSW
100 KTS. ON THE SFC...NW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS CONTINUE TO DRY THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE WITH FROST LIKELY IN SHELTERED...SKC AREAS BY
DAYBREAK. OUR LOW TO MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO DRY AS WELL WITH VAD
SHOWING WINDS VEERING MORE NORTHERLY OVER THE LAST 12 HRS. SFC WINDS
WILL CONTINUE NW AROUND 10 KTS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN THICKEN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW BUCKLING THE JET OVER THE 4 CORNERS.
OUTLOOK IS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS/VSBY DVLPG AROUND 04/18Z.
VFR...BUT COLD THIS WEEKEND. TOO DRY FOR FROST SAT...BUT NOT SUN./24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 48 32 44 26 49 / 0 10 20 20 10
MLU 50 31 45 28 47 / 0 10 30 60 10
DEQ 46 25 42 23 48 / 0 10 10 10 10
TXK 47 28 41 25 48 / 0 10 10 10 10
ELD 48 28 44 25 48 / 0 10 20 20 10
TYR 49 30 42 23 50 / 0 10 20 20 10
GGG 49 29 43 24 49 / 0 10 20 20 10
LFK 52 34 43 26 49 / 0 10 30 30 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ073.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ070>072.
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-019.
OK...NONE.
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ126-136>138-149>153.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124-125.
&&
$$
05/24/
