FXUS64 KFWD 291123 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
523 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
.AVIATION...
CONCERNS: CIGS...WIND SHIFT & PRECIPITATION.
CIGS WILL BE A HARD CALL THROUGH MIDDAY AS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS HAS
IMPROVED TO MVFR. THINK CIGS WILL COME DOWN TO AROUND 1500 FT
LATER...ESPECIALLY AS LIFT OUT WEST NEARS AND PRECIPITATION
BEGINS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS DURING THE PRECIP. THE
06Z MAV MOS HAS ALSO RESPONDED MORE FAVORABLE. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE METROPLEX 20-21Z/2-3PM AND KACT AT
22Z/4PM. EXPECT SOME PRECIP TO BEGIN FORMING AT MIDDAY AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN CWA (KACT)
OVERNIGHT WHERE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUOUS RAIN IS BETTER. AS THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS ACROSS KDFW TRACON THIS EVENING...CIGS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME VFR. WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY SEVERAL HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE RELAXING A
LITTLE. 75
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/
THE QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
COMING TO AN END TODAY...TO BE REPLACED WITH MUCH COLDER AND
DREARY WEATHER. CURRENTLY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A CUT OFF
LOW RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW OVER TEXAS. OVERALL...THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS MORNING...AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LOW CLOUDS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF NORTH
TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THUS NOT MUCH
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING. HAVE
REDUCED POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CLEAR
THE CWA BY LATE TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. ON MONDAY...HAVE LINGERED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
ADVANCING INTO TEXAS AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE OVERSPREADING
THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW...THE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AND BRING SOME MOISTURE
BACK INTO NORTH TEXAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE
WET AS SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
PRODUCE APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER NORTH TEXAS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW COMES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY
NIGHT /WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN ITS CORE/...MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS THE WEST. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST MAY GET CLOSE
TO FREEZING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. HOWEVER...DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM ANY SNOW THAT FALLS. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WEST OF A LINE FROM
JACKSBORO TO LOMETA.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS MODELS AGREE ON
WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR NOW. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN
AND CONFIDENCE IN DAYS 6-7 REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
SEVERAL COLD DAYS OF TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ARE FORECAST THIS
WEEK. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST DAYS
WITH A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING OF ONLY 5-10 DEGREES IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS IS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...CLOUD COVER...AND
RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SLOWLY WARM AFTER
WEDNESDAY BUT MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECOMES
A REALITY. THE ECMWF KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR THE COLDER AIR TO REMAIN IN PLACE LONGER.
82/JLD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 68 41 57 39 50 / 30 20 5 20 70
WACO, TX 69 46 55 41 49 / 40 80 20 30 70
PARIS, TX 67 40 56 35 54 / 60 40 5 10 50
DENTON, TX 65 38 56 34 51 / 20 10 5 20 70
MCKINNEY, TX 66 39 57 35 51 / 50 20 5 20 60
DALLAS, TX 67 41 57 40 51 / 40 20 5 20 70
TERRELL, TX 68 43 58 39 50 / 60 40 5 20 70
CORSICANA, TX 71 45 55 40 50 / 60 80 10 20 70
TEMPLE, TX 68 46 53 40 48 / 40 80 20 30 70
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
75/
