FXUS63 KLMK 011111
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
611 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM ARKANSAS TO TENNESSEE THIS MORNING 
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY.  THE 
CALM SFC WINDS...GOOD INVERSION...AND GOOD RAD COOLING OVER OUR 
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CAUSED BY THIS HIGH WILL CREATE PATCHY FOG 
THIS MORNING.  WITH TEMPS ALREADY BELOW FREEZING IN THIS 
AREA...FREEZING FOG IS PROBABLE ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED 
SURFACES/BRIDGES/OVERPASSES.  GENERALLY PAVEMENT TEMPS ARE STILL IN 
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S ACCORDING TO KY TRANSPORTATION CABINET 
SENSORS SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS ON THE ROADWAYS THIS 
MORNING.  HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ISSUE AN SPS IF 
NEEDED. 

BEYOND THAT...THE REST OF TODAY LOOKS TO HAVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE 
WITH HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS.

TONIGHT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH.  CLOUDS 
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM 0Z ONWARD.  PRECIP LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN 
THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN AFTER 6Z.  IT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH 
CENTRAL KY BETWEEN 6-9Z AND JUST SOUTH OF LEX/SDF BY 12Z.  HAVE 
SIDED WITH THE FASTER 21Z SREF AND 0Z SPC WRF SOLNS AS THEY HAVE 
VERIFIED BEST WITH TIMING THE LAST FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS.  LOW TEMPS 
IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 TONIGHT SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 6Z BEFORE 
THE SYSTEM PUSHES SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS INTO THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY - MONDAY)...

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON A WEATHER MAKER THAT WILL BE MOVING 
THROUGH THE REGION MID-WEEK. IT APPEARS A SURFACE LOW INVOF THE 
MS/AL BORDER WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE NNE TO THE KENTUCKY BLUE 
GRASS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN OFF INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION 
OF NEW YORK THURSDAY MORNING. THE CORRESPONDING 850HPA LOW WILL 
TRAVEL FROM THE AR/MS BORDER TO SW INDIANA TO SW ONTARIO. THIS STORM 
PATH WOULD PLACE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWS OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF 
THE LMK CWFA.

LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT SEVERAL POINTS AROUND THE LMK CWFA 
ON THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF...IT APPEARS THE GREAT MAJORITY OF THE 
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAIN. RAIN WILL 
ENVELOP THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY 
MORNING...WITH EVERYONE SEEING RAIN BY THE LUNCH HOUR. PERIODS OF 
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

IN ADDITION TO SOUNDING PROGS...THICKNESSES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
SUPPORT RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM LATE 
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER ANY DEEP MOISTURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT QUICKLY AFTER 
MIDNIGHT...AND WE MAY ACTUALLY JUST SEE A LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE MAYBE 
MIXED WITH A FLURRY OR TWO BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY BUT WITH GOOD COLD AIR 
ADVECTION SWEEPING IN WE COULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SNOW AND RAIN 
SHOWERS.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE 
IN THE ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE WITH THE GREAT MAJORITY OF THAT 
FALLING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN 
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.  
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE BWG TERMINAL THIS MORNING BOUNCING IN AND 
OUT OF MVFR VSBYS.  HAVE RAISED VSBYS FOR BWG THIS TAF ISSUANCE AS 
IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE FOG WILL BE AS DENSE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  
AFTER VSBYS CLEAR UP THIS MORNING AT BWG...ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN 
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.  

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY TO THE ATLANTIC 
SEABOARD...THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH 
LATE TONIGHT.  MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT 
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.  WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT BWG AS SOME PRECIP COULD 
GET INTO THIS TERMINAL AFTER 6Z.

SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 9 KTS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON OVER 
THE TAF SITES.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SE THIS EVENING AND LIGHTEN 
UP A BIT.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........AML
LONG TERM.........13
AVIATION..........AML