FXUS61 KBTV 251427
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
927 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM
WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 919 AM EST FRIDAY...BEST CHANCE FOR SUNSHINE TODAY WILL BE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VT AND NRN ADIRONDACKS. LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION CONTINUES TO TRAP LOW CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG BEING
REPORTED IN CENTRAL VT. WITH LOW SUN ANGLE AND STRONG SFC RIDGE
MOVING EWD ACROSS THE REGION...SEE LITTLE REASON FOR THE CLOUDS TO
MIX OUT IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. THERE WILL BE A TREND TOWARD SOME
SUNNY BREAKS FOR THE WRN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS AND SOME OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/ERN VT. ALSO SEEING SOME OCCASIONAL SNOW
FLURRY ACTIVITY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...EVEN THOUGH CLOUD LAYER
IS ONLY 2 KFT DEEP AND MIN CLOUD TEMPS ARE -5 TO -6C. WILL NEED TO
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES...THOUGH MOST
AVAILABLE DATA ONLY MARGINAL SUPPORTS PRECIPITATION FROM SHALLOW
CLOUD LAYER OR ICE IN THE CLOUD GIVEN TEMPERATURE REGIME.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMEST IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS /MID 30S/ AND
GENERALLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE CLOUDY LOWER VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTN...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE EAST
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
TONIGHT: TEMPS BEING AT OR JUST BLW FREEZING AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIP...WHICH WILL ONLY WORK INTO PORTIONS OF NRN NY BY MORNING. CD
AIR AT THE SFC WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX...SLEET/FR
RAIN. LOW QPF IN MDLS FOR ONSET SO LITTLE TO NO ACCUM FOR BOTH WX
ITEMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EST FRIDAY...SLOW TRANSITION FROM W TO E EXPECTED
FOR PRECIP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. N NY WILL SEE BULK OF PRECIP
ON SATURDAY AS FRNT STALLS DUE TO BLOCKING RIDGE OVER E CANADA.
WARM AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH CD SFC TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO
BE MIXED IN NATURE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MOSTLY FR
RAIN...WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH IT. W/ QPF NEAR QUARTER
INCH...THIS WILL POSE PROBLEM FOR ICE ACCUM...SO WILL CONTINUE WSW
FOR GD PORTION OF N NY. SOME LGT WINTRY PRECIP WILL BEGIN DURING
THE MORNING HRS SATURDAY FOR CVLY EASTWARD...BUT BULK OF STEADY
PRECIP WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTNOON HRS. SSE WINDS WILL HAVE HARD
TIME WORKING INTO NCNE VT INTIALLY...W/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HINTING
AT MORE SLEET AS MAIN PRECIP TYPE..W/ SOME FR RAIN/SNOW AS WELL.
CVLY WILL SEE MOST A SLEET TO RAIN CHANGEOVER..BUT THE FURTHER
REMOVED FROM LK CHAMPLAIN AREA...CHANCES FOR SOME CD AIR TO REMAIN
FOR SNOW/FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS...W/ LITTLE TO NO ACCUM. FRNTL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE E BY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL TAPER POPS DOWN AS
FRNT MVS AWAY FROM AREA. OVERALL QPF WILL BE NEAR 0.40-0.60".
EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR NUMBERS TO COME CLOSE TO
TOTALS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CVLY. OTHER ISSUE FOR THIS FRNTL
BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONG WINDS. SSE WIND SETUP ALONG FAVORABLE
AREAS WILL BRING STEADY WINDS UP TO 20-30MPH W/ POTENTIAL FOR HIR
GUSTS CLOSER TO 40-50MPH...AS SHOWN IN BUFKIT. WILL ALLOW FOR NEXT
SHIFT TO SEE NEWER MDL RUN TO DECIDE ON ANY POTENTIAL WIND
ADVISORY...AS WELL AS ANY EXPANSION OF CURRENT WSW TO POSSIBLY
INCLUDE NC NE VT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET AND FZ RAIN MIX WILL
HAVE IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 440 AM EST FRIDAY...COLDER AIR MOVING INTO FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHWRS IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO OVER THE ADRNDKS
WITH APRCH OF UPPER LOW. EXPECT A CONTD CHC OF SNOW SHWRS DURING
MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACRS THE RGN. CHANCES INCR FURTHER
LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH APRCH OF ANOTHER
STRONG SHRTWV AND ITS ASSOCD ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE GRTLKS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHWRS AND
PSBL SQUALLS AND SHARPLY FALLING TEMPS ON GUSTY NW WNDS. TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH SOME WIND
CHILL CONCERNS PSBL FOR LATE MON NITE/TUES...MAINLY IN FAVORED
COLDER SPOTS/HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL NOT BE CLIMBING
MUCH...IF AT ALL...FROM EARLY MORNING LOWS AS RGN WILL BE UNDER
CONTD CAA. FAIRLY TRANQUIL WX FOR WED/THURS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE DURING THIS PERIOD...RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL ALTHO THEY
WILL MODERATE SOME BY THURS AS CORE OF COLD AIR MOVES EAST AND
ARIMASS MODIFIES. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST/NORTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT IN ANY EVENT IT APPEARS
AS IF PCPN CHANCES WILL INCR BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...GENERALLY IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING AT ALL AREA TAF SITES WITH LOW CIGS AT ALL SITES
ALONG WITH SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK/KMPV. A STRONG LOW LEVEL
INVERSION AND AMBIENT MOISTURE WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR 15Z-18Z TODAY...WITH CIGS DROPPING BACK TO IFR
MOST LOCALES TONIGHT. EXPECT A CHANCE OF MIXED PCPN (IP/FZRA/SN) TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY AT KMSS/KSLK/KRUT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KRUT/KMSS AFTER 06Z.
OUTLOOK...12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z SAT THRU 18Z SUN...MVFR W/OCNL IFR IN MIXED PCPN AS OCCLUDED
FRONT CROSSES AREA. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS.
18Z SUNDAY THRU 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT OCNL MVFR IN MTN
SHSN...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK/KMPV.
12Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUE...VFR TRENDING MVFR/IFR IN SHSN/SQ AS UPPER
LOW AND STRONG COLD FRONT AFFECT THE REGION. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z TUE.
12Z TUE THRU 00Z WED...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN MTN SHSN...MAINLY
AT THE KSLK TERMINAL. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
